The paper examines the effect of exchange rate changes on consumer prices in Ghana using vector autoregression (VAR) models. Using a data set covering the period 1990M01–2009M02, we find that the exchange rate pass-through to inflation is ‘incomplete’ and decreasing in Ghana. Our empirical results indicate a low but significant pass-through in the short run. We argue that the findings reflect t...

Investment funds in China started in 1991. After 20 years of development, the mutual fund industry is now offering a rich product line for investors. At present, individual investors hold about 90% of the mutual fund with more than 90,000,000 fund accounts. Mutual fund purchasing has become the preferred way of managing money for urban residents in China. This paper study on risk assessment met...

Applying nonlinear models to estimation and forecasting economic models are now becoming more common, thanks to advances in computing technology. Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) models, which are nonlinear local optimizer models, have proven successful in forecasting economic variables. Most ANN models applied in Economics use the gradient descent method as their learning algorithm. However, t...

This paper provides a synthesis and further development of a global modelling approach introduced in Pesaran, Schuermann and Weiner (2004), where country specific models in the form of VARX* structures are estimated relating a vector of domestic variables, xit, to their foreign counterparts, x*it, and then consistently combined to form a Global VAR (GVAR). It is shown that the VARX* models can ...

hy a new edition of The Nature of the Judicial Process? Presumably because in the world of law, Benjamin Cardozo still rocks, and his opinions and writings still send worthwhile messages as we near the 100th anniversary of his election to the bench. All law students and many academics continue to wrestle with a number of his common law opinions. Just this year Professor Lawrence Cunningham devo...

In the first part of this paper we address the non-coherence of value-at-risk (VaR) as a risk measure in the context of portfolio credit risk, and highlight some problems which follow from this theoretical deficiency. In particular, a realistic demonstration of the non-subadditivity of VaR is given and the possibly nonsensical consequences of VaR-based portfolio optimisation are shown. The seco...

Is it possible to obtain an objective and quantifiable measure of risk backed up by choices made by some specific groups of rational investors? To answer this question, in this paper we establish some behavior foundations for various types of VaR models, including VaR and conditional-VaR, as measures of downside risk. Though supported to some extent with unanimous choices by some specific group...