Modeling financial volatility is an important part of empirical finance. This paper provides a literature review of the most relevant volatility models, with a particular focus on forecasting models. We firstly discuss the empirical foundations of different kinds of volatility. The paper, then, analyses the non-parametric measure of volatility, named realized variance, and its empirical applica...

the purpose of this research is to examine the existence of seasonality in the stock market return, its volatility and trading amount associated with moving calendar events such as the holy month of ramadan using a garch specification and data for the tehran stock exchange (tse) from april 1998 to june 2010. the result shows a statistically significant increase in returns and a systematic patte...

Much research has focused upon the dynamics of the conditional volatility of financial asset returns. Broadly speaking there are two important features of the process underlying volatility. These may be described as either a sign effect, where the level of volatility is related to the sign of past returns or a size effect, where the dynamics of volatility are related to prevailing level of vola...

Empirical volatility changes in time and exhibits tails, which are heavier than normal. Moreover, empirical volatility has sometimes quite substantial upwards jumps and clusters on high levels. We investigate classical and nonclassical stochastic volatility models with respect to their extreme behavior. We show that classical stochastic volatility models driven by Brownian motion can model heav...

Research has consistently found that implied volatility is a conditionally biased predictor of realized volatility across asset markets. This paper evaluates explanations for this bias in the market for options on foreign exchange futures. No solution considered—including a model of priced volatility risk—explains the conditional bias found in implied volatility. Further, while implied volatili...

In this note, we develop stock option price approximations for a model which takes both the risk o default and the stochastic volatility into account. We also let the intensity of defaults be influenced by the volatility. We show that it might be possible to infer the risk neutral default intensity from the stock option prices. Our option price approximation has a rich implied volatility surfac...

The volatility of a nancial asset is the variance per unit time of the logarithm of the price of the asset. Volatility has a key role to play in the determination of risk and in the valuation of options and other derivative securities. The widespread Black-Scholes model for asset prices assumes constant volatility. The purpose of this chapter is to review the evidence for non-constant volatilit...

In the wake of emerging market turmoil, the role and welfare consequences of volatility have attracted renewed attention. An emerging consensus points to various types of volatility being both a consequence and a determinant of longerterm growth performance. The linkages appear to be context dependent. This paper employs classification tree analysis to explore determinants of consumption volati...