This study documents a subtle and counter-intuitive interaction between operating cash flow (CFO) and accruals, and their association with future stock returns. While the two strategies should by construction capture similar anomalies, we find evidence in two large stock markets that they appear distinct, and that returns to these strategies are strongly negatively correlated. We show that the ...

Modeling the dependency between stock market returns is a difficult task when returns follow a complicated dynamics. It is not easy to specify the multivariate distribution relating two or more return series. In this paper, a methodology based on fitting ARIMA, GARCH and ARMA-GARCH models and copula functions is applied. In such methodology, the dependency parameter can easily be rendered condi...

This paper presents results from an experimental computer simulated stock market. In this market artificial intelligence algorithms take on the role of traders. They make predictions about the future, and buy and sell stock as indicated by their expectations of future risk and return. Prices are set endogenously to clear the market. Time series from this market are analyzed from the standpoint ...

After analyzing retail investors’ stock trades for potential learning behavior, we present evidence that individual investors learn from their trading experience. Initially, we question whether investors’ previous forecasting ability (inferred from prior purchases’ subsequent risk-adjusted performance) affects their future trade profitability and activity. Indeed, as an investor’s inferred abil...

Informational Efficiency of Credit Default Swap and Stock Markets: The Impact of Credit Rating Announcements This Paper analyses the response of stock and credit default swap (CDS) markets to rating announcements by the three major rating agencies during 2000-2. Applying event study methodology, we examine whether and how strongly these markets respond to rating announcements in terms of abnorm...

This paper examines under what circumstances the market-based compensation scheme is effective in inducing managers’ incentives. We combine the optimal contract theory with the market microstructure literature and endogenize both the optimal compensation scheme and the stock market equilibrium. We analytically show that the incentive pay works better in a more efficient (or more informative) st...

In this study, we compare the performance of trading strategies based on possibly mis-specified mathematical models with a trading strategy based on a technical trading rule. In both cases, the trader attempts to predict a change in the drift of the stock return occurring at an unknown time.We explicitly compute the trader’s expected logarithmic utility of wealth for the various trading strateg...

In 1990’s emerging stock markets evolved from small, shallow, speculative markets into sizeable and liquid markets. If there is any relationship between market development and efficiency, it must show up in market efficiency tests over time. This conjecture is analyzed empirically, applying joint variance ratio (VR) test on weekly real Wednesday and Friday returns for 18 emerging stock markets ...

Faceless trading in a secondary stock market not only redistributes wealth among investors but also generates information that guides subsequent real decisions. We provide a disclosure model that reflects both functions of the secondary market. By partially preempting traders’information advantage established from information acquisition, disclosure reduces incentives for privately acquiring in...

This paper examines the impact of accounting information events (i.e., earnings announcements and analysts’ earnings forecasts) on the profitability of a pairs trading strategy proposed by Gatev et al. (2006). Using a portfolio of U.S. stock pairs between 1981 and 2006, we find that pairs trades are frequently triggered around accounting information events. More importantly, we find that pairs ...