Article history: Received 21 April 2008 Received in revised form 13 May 2009 Accepted 14 May 2009 Available online 27 May 2009 This paper assumes that the decision makers of OPEC (or at least of its core members) are interested in both profits and political payoffs (support, popularity, being a hero of the Arab or Islamic street, etc.). The oil weapon, i.e. a reduction of output is the most pow...

1 We acknowledge the comments made to a previous version of this paper by Christoph Ernst. Efficient research assistance by Claudio Aravena and Fernando Larrain is appreciated. The views expressed in this paper are of the authors and do not necessarilly present those of the institutions they belong.

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