A system for scenario analysis and forecasting of mass migration is presented. The system consists of a family of multi-scale models to address the need of responding agencies for better situational awareness, short and medium-term forecasts of migration patterns, and assess impact of changes on the ground. Such insights allow for better planning and resource allocations to address migrant need...

This paper discusses and reviews the use of super-eciency approach in data envelopment analysis (DEA) sensitivity analyses. It is shown that super-eciency score can be decomposed into two data perturbation components of a particular test frontier decision making unit (DMU) and the remaining DMUs. As a result, DEA sensitivity analysis can be done in (1) a general situation where data for a tes...

In the context of an era filled with frequent occurrence of emergencies, it is urgent to carry out effective treatment. The existing studies focus their research on general rule of emergency evolution, ignoring the consideration of concrete composition of scenario, while the formulation of contingency plan based on the real evolution process of the emergency is rare. In this paper, the basic mo...

C. J. Paul Process Managers are applications that implement and manage process flows integrating people, information, and technology. They allow customers to improve organizational productivity while satisfying governance and compliance requirements. This paper describes the design challenges in building Process Managers in contrast with workflow-based applications. A methodology is presented w...

welders exposure to nickel and hexavalent chromium in welding fumes is associated with increase of cancer risk in welders. in this study we calculated cancer risk due to exposure to these compounds in welders.the role of exposure parameters in welders on derived incremental lifetime cancer risk were determined by stochastic modeling of cancer risk. input parameters were determined by field inve...

In this paper, a mathematical model for the strategic planning and design of supply chains in the globalization context is proposed. A multi-objective function is used to address decisions about capacity sizing, sourcing, and facility location, with the scope of maximizing supply chain profits. The model is dynamic and is applied to a multiechelon, multi-facility and multi-product supply chain ...

This paper provides overviews of two major concepts and methodologies --Scenario Planning (SP) from Strategic Management and Real Options Analysis (ROA) from Finance. The paper draws on the KUU (Known, Unknown, and Unknowable) framework to demonstrate the commonalities and differences among these two approaches and calls for their synergistic use.

This paper present a heuristic model to ease scenario construction and usage in interaction design processes. We argue that the role of scenarios varies: I) along the design process, thus scenario building and usage have to be attuned to the particular goal of the design phase; II) in respect to the people that will use them (e.g., design team, client, user), thereby scenarios have to suit in s...

..................................................................................................................................1 Acknowledgement..................................................................................................................2 List of abbreviations ..............................................................................................................7 ...

Scenarios are widely used to specify the desired behavior of a system, but managing the large collection of scenarios that frequently result and making a scenario-based specification complete are challenging tasks. Scenario networks address these challenges while retaining the many advantages of scenarios during software specification activities. A scenario network is a collection of scenarios ...