In this paper we study the role of the exchange rate in conducting monetary policy in an economy with near-zero nominal interest rates as experienced in Japan since the mid-1990s. Our analysis is based on an estimated model of Japan, the United States and the euro area with rational expectations and nominal rigidities. First, we provide a quantitative analysis of the impact of the zero bound on...

We use the inflation premium—the difference between nominal and real interest rates—as a proxy for expected inflation in the context of the New Keynesian Phillips Curve. Using data from inflation-indexed and nominal bonds we estimate a forward-looking Phillips curve for the United Kingdom over the period 1985-2004. The proposed model describes UK inflation dynamics considerably better than does...

Based on a cognitive notion of neo-additive capacities reflecting likelihood insensitivity with respect to survival chances, we construct a Choquet Bayesian learning model over the life-cycle that generates a motivational notion of neoadditive survival beliefs expressing ambiguity attitudes. We embed these neoadditive survival beliefs as decision weights in a Choquet expected utility life-cycle...

A major concern with tradable emission permits is that stochastic permit prices may reduce a firm’s incentive to invest in abatement capital or technologies relative to other policies such as a fixed emissions charge. However, under efficient permit trading, the permit price uncertainty is caused by abatement cost uncertainties which affect investment under both permit and charge policies. We d...

We generalize the standard competitive rational expectations equilibrium (Hellwig (1980), Verrecchia (1982)) by studying the possibility that informed agents open mutual funds in order to sell their private information. We illustrate how mutual funds endogenously arise in equilibrium and we characterize the fund managers’ optimal investment management fees under imperfect competition. In our mo...

We develop a rational expectations equilibrium model in which noise trading comes from discretionary liquidity traders. The equilibrium quantity of aggregate noise trading is endogenously determined by the population size of liquidity traders active in the financial market. By improving market liquidity, public information reduces the expected trading loss of liquidity traders and thus attracts...

We consider a linear univariate rational expectations model, with a predetermined variable, and study existence and stability of solutions driven by an extraneous finite-state Markov process. We show that when the model is indeterminate there exists a new class of kstate dependent sunspot equilibria in addition to the k-state sunspot equilibria (k-SSEs) already known to exist in part of the ind...

Based on a cognitive notion of neo-additive capacities reflecting likelihood insensitivity with respect to survival chances, we construct a Choquet Bayesian learning model over the life-cycle that generates a motivational notion of neoadditive survival beliefs expressing ambiguity attitudes. We embed these neoadditive survival beliefs as decision weights in a Choquet expected utility life-cycle...

We use generalized method of moments to estimate a rational expectations aggregate demand/aggregate supply macroeconomic model for five European economies and the United States. Our aim is to examine whether supply or demand shocks have predominated in these economies during the post-war era, and whether shocks of either type have been primarily temporary or permanent in nature. The estimation ...

We use the inflation premium—the difference between nominal and real interest rates—as a proxy for expected inflation in the context of the New Keynesian Phillips Curve. Using data from inflation-indexed and nominal bonds we estimate a forward-looking Phillips curve for the United Kingdom over the period 1985-2004. The proposed model describes UK inflation dynamics considerably better than does...