The use of GARCH models with stable Paretian innovations in financial modeling has been recently suggested in the literature. This class of processes is attractive because it allows for conditional skewness and leptokurtosis of financial returns without ruling out normality. This contribution illustrates their usefulness in predicting the downside risk of financial assets in the context of mode...

This paper studies the information content of some Ifo indicators. In particular, we investigate whether two Ifo indicators, one on the current business situation, the other on current production development, provide information on revisions of German industrial production. A new feature of our analysis is the construction and use of a real-time dataset. We conclude that the Ifo indicators play...

The paper is dedicated to deriving a gaussian procedure to test for cointegration. We consider four alternative specifications, depending on the form adopted by the deterministic terms. We then define the test statistic and derive its asymptotic behaviour under both the null and the alternative hypotheses. We show that, under the null hypothesis, the test procedure follows a Standard-Normal dis...

Google Econometrics and Unemployment Forecasting The current economic crisis requires fast information to predict economic behavior early, which is difficult at times of structural changes. This paper suggests an innovative new method of using data on internet activity for that purpose. It demonstrates strong correlations between keyword searches and unemployment rates using monthly German data...

A least squares estimation approach for the estimation of a GARCH (1,1) model is developed. The asymptotic properties of the estimator are studied given mild regularity conditions, which require only that the error term has a conditional moment of some order. We establish the consistency, asymptotic normality and the law of iterated logarithm for our estimate. The finite sample properties are a...

This paper reviews the analysis of the threshold autoregressive, smooth threshold autoregressive, and Markov switching autoregressive models from the Bayesian perspective. For each model we start by describing a baseline model and discussing possible extensions and applications. Then we review the choice of prior, inference, tests against the linear hypothesis, and conclude with models selectio...

Monthly seasonally unadjusted data can exhibit roots with possibly fractional orders of integration, corresponding to the monthly but also to the quarterly and to the long-run or trending components of the series. In this paper we use a procedure which is suitable to test simultaneously for the order of integration of each of these components and apply it to several US monetary aggregates. JEL ...