This paper extends Nolan and Thoenissen (2009), hence NT, model with an explicit financial intermediary that transfer funds from households to entrepreneurs subject to a well defined loan production function. The loan productivity shock is treated as the supply side financial disturbance. Together with NT’s net worth shock that resembles the credit demand perturbation, both of the two-sided sho...

We develop a horizontal R&D growth model that allows us to investigate the different channels through which financial reforms affect investment and patent activity. First, “micro” reform abolishes barriers entry in banking sector produces straightforward result: decrease lending rates stimulates economic growth. Second, “macro” removes restrictions on banks’ reserves credit controls. While this...

A life-cycle model with equilibrium default in which consumers with and without temptation coexist is constructed to evaluate the 2005 bankruptcy law reform and other counterfactual reforms. The calibrated model indicates that the 2005 bankruptcy reform achieves its goal of reducing the number of bankruptcy filings, as seen in the data, but at the cost of loss in social welfare. The creditor-fr...

A life-cycle model with equilibrium default in which consumers with and without temptation coexist is constructed to evaluate the 2005 bankruptcy law reform and other counterfactual reforms. The calibrated model indicates that the 2005 bankruptcy reform achieves its goal of reducing the number of bankruptcy filings, as seen in the data, but at the cost of loss in social welfare. The creditor-fr...

Several empirical studies have documented that the signs of excess stock returns are, to some extent, predictable. In this paper, we consider the predictive ability of the binary dependent dynamic probit model in predicting the direction of monthly excess stock returns. The recession forecast obtained from the model for a binary recession indicator appears to be the most useful predictive varia...

Using monthly data spanning from 1993 to 2021 and employingthe DCC-GARCH model, this study examines the role ofEconomic Policy Uncertainty (EPU) as a potential exogenousfactor impacting correlation of Brazil, Russia, India, andChina (BRIC) economies’ stock markets, which is new theliterature. Further, dynamic series used adependent variable while EPU BRIC USA anindependent by utilizing autoregr...

Premiums on US sovereign CDS have risen to persistently elevated levels since the financial crisis. In this paper, we ask whether these premiums reflect the probability of a US fiscal default, namely a state in which budget balance can no longer be restored by further raising taxes or eroding the real value of debt by raising inflation. To that end, we develop an equilibrium macrofinance model ...

â â â  â â â â â  abstract: â  up to now, the impact of real exchange rate on the non-oil exports of iran has been mainly on focus. however, the more important aspect of the fluctuations in exchange rate is its degree of volatility which can have profound effect on the non-oil exports. hence, the main objective of this paper is to investigate the linkage between non-oil exports and the real exc...

This paper investigates risk premiums embedded in commodity convenience yields, i.e., returns on convenience-claim investments. The analysis is conducted in two steps. First, monthly convenience yields are extracted from a broad sample of commodity futures by using a three-factor model. Second, a multi-factor asset pricing model with conditional betas is estimated to determine risk premiums emb...

In this paper we focus on the impact of additive level outliers on the calculation of risk measures such as minimum capital risk requirements and four possible alternatives of reducing these measures’ estimation biases. The first and second alternatives are based on wavelets while the third is based on the traditional proposals in the literature and the three are based on the detection and corr...