In value-at-risk (VaR) methodology of option risk measurement, the determination of market values of the current option positions under various market scenarios is critical. Under the full revaluation and factor sensitivity approach which are accepted by regulators, accurate revaluation and precise factor sensitivity calculation of options in response to significant moves in market variables ar...

This paper aims to provide a practical example on the assessment and propagation of input uncertainty for option pricing when using tree-based methods. Input uncertainty is propagated into output uncertainty, reflecting that option prices are as unknown as the inputs they are based on. Option pricing formulas are tools whose validity is conditional not only on how close the model represents rea...

This paper assesses whether the market valuation of gold mining firms contain a premium for the option to close. Real options theory states that the managerial flexibility with respect to operating decisions of the firm have a recognisable and identifiable value. Together with the present value of expected cash flows (incorporated via the Hotelling Valuation Principle), existing theory purports...

Medium-term modeling of electricity market has essential role in generation expansion planning. On the other hand, uncertainties strongly affect modeling and consequently, strategic analysis of generation firms in the medium term. Therefore, models considering these uncertainties are highly required. Among uncertain variables considered in the medium term generation planning, demand and hyd...

The two most popular equity derivatives pricing models among practitioners are the local volatility model and the Heston model. While the former has the appealing property that it can be calibrated exactly to any given set of arbitrage free European vanilla option prices, the latter delivers a more realistic smile dynamics. In this article we combine both modeling approaches to the Heston stoch...

Although stock option markets have grown dramatically over the past several decades, the relation between an option and its underlying asset, especially bidirectional conduction, is not particularly clear. So far, there have been many debates about this topic. We try to investigate this problem from a novel angle: an artificial stock market including a stock option is constructed in this paper....

Implied correlation and variance risk premium stand out in predicting market returns. However, while the predictive ability of implied correlation lasts for up to a year, the variance risk premium predicts market returns only for one quarter ahead. Contrary to the accepted view, implied correlation predicts the market return not through a diversification risk (average correlation) channel, but ...

Option pricing is the the core content of modern finance. American option is widely accepted by investors for its flexibility of exercising time. In this paper, American option pricing formula is calculated for uncertain financial market and some mathematical properties of them are discussed. In addition, some examples are proposed. keywords: finance, uncertain process, option pricing

This paper presents an approach to recovering the "true" underlying market value returns from observable appraisal-based index returns, without pre-supposing or constraining the market value returns to be unpredictable or uncorrelated across time. A structural/behavioral model is developed relating observed index returns to the underlying market returns. The procedure presented here explicitly ...