It is well known that Monte Carlo method can be used to estimate the area of a region which cannot computed directly. There are lot ways choose larger whose computable when one performs method, but best? In this note, we find best in terms fastest speed convergence probability, with help large deviations.

Accurate prediction methods are generally very computationally intensive, so they take a long time. Quick methods, on the other hand, not accurate. Is it possible to design method that is both accurate and fast? In this paper, new proposed, based so-called random time-delay patterns, named RTDP method. Using these looks for most important parts of time series’ previous evolution, uses them pred...