I examine the long-run behavior of oil, coal, and natural gas prices, using up to 127 years of data, and address the following questions: What does over a century of data tell us about the stochastic dynamics of price evolution, and how it should be modeled? Can models of reversion to stochastically fluctuating trend lines help us forecast prices over horizons of 20 years or more? And what do t...

In this paper the long-run trend in CPI inflation (core inflation) for the US over the 1960– 2000 period is estimated using a common trends model. In this framework, core inflation is interpreted and constructed as the long-run forecast of inflation conditional on the information contained in nominal money growth, output fluctuations and movements in the oil price. Unlike other commonly used me...

I discuss the short-run dynamics of commodity prices, production, and inventories, as well as the sources and effects of market volatility. I explain how prices, rates of production, and inventory levels are interrelated, and are determined via equilibrium in two interconnected markets: a cash market for spot purchases and sales of the commodity, and a market for storage. I show how equilibrium...

The BP Deepwater Horizon oil spill of 2010 has focused considerable attention on the potential liability and the operating conduct of big oil companies. This paper shows that limiting the ability of a company to insure and diversify its risks creates incentives to internalize the welfare effects of catastrophic events, leading to a welfare improvement. We model an economy with complete financia...

Commodity prices tend to be volatile, and volatility itself varies over time. Changes in volatility can affect market variables by directly affecting the marginal value of storage, and by affecting a component of the total marginal cost of production: the opportunity cost of exercising the option to produce the commodity now rather than waiting for more price information. I examine the role of ...

Article history: Received 21 April 2008 Received in revised form 13 May 2009 Accepted 14 May 2009 Available online 27 May 2009 This paper assumes that the decision makers of OPEC (or at least of its core members) are interested in both profits and political payoffs (support, popularity, being a hero of the Arab or Islamic street, etc.). The oil weapon, i.e. a reduction of output is the most pow...

Commodity prices tend to be volatile, and volatility itself varies over time. Changes in volatility can affect market variables by directly affecting the marginal value of storage, and by affecting a component of the total marginal cost of production: the opportunity cost of exercising the option to produce the commodity now rather than waiting for more price information. I examine the role of ...

The Effect of Inspector Group Size and Familiarity on Enforcement and Deterrence The paper provides new insights into the productivity of teams and the relationship between the inspector and the inspected party. Exploiting exogenous variation in the number of inspectors that are sent to offshore oil and gas platforms in the Gulf of Mexico, we find that adding an inspector does not simply result...

This paper investigates variance risk premia in energy commodities, particularly crude oil and natural gas, using a robust model-independent approach. Over a period of 11 years, we find that the average variance risk premia are significantly negative for both energy commodities. However, it is difficult to explain the level and variation in energy variance risk premia with systematic or commodi...

Inflation targeting framework has become a predominant monetary approach across the globe. Williams (2015) believes that in a very real sense, almost all economies are inflation targeters -either explicit or implicit- now.(1) Due to the increasing spread of this policy, it is necessary to consider the way it affects macroeconomic variables. using prevalent economic models for evaluating the eff...