This paper concentrates on the HFMD data of China from March 2009 to December 2012. We set up a mathematical model to fit those data with the goodness of fit and obtain the optimal parameter values of the model. By the Chi-square test of statistical inference, the optimal parameter values of the model are reasonable. We obtained the basic reproductive number of the disease for each year, and it...

This paper is concerned with the modeling of infectious disease spread in a composite space-time domain under conditions of uncertainty. We focus on stochastic modeling that accounts for basic mechanisms of disease distribution and multi-sourced in situ uncertainties. Starting from the general formulation of population migration dynamics and the specification of transmission and recovery rates,...

OBJECTIVE To assess the likelihood of an introduction of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) into the Malaysia-Thailand-Myanmar (MTM) peninsula through terrestrial movement of livestock. ANIMALS 89,294 cattle and buffalo legally moved into the MTM peninsula. PROCEDURES A quantitative risk assessment was conducted by use of a stochastic simulation. Patterns of livestock movement were ascertained th...

When the error rate during the copying of genetic material exceeds a threshold value, the genetic information cannot be maintained. This concept is the basis of a new antiviral strategy termed lethal mutagenesis or virus entry into error catastrophe. Critical for its success is preventing survival of residual infectious virus or virus mutants that escape the transition into error catastrophe. H...

The incidence of bovine tuberculosis (BTB) is increasing in Great Britain, exacerbated by the temporary suspension of herd testing in 2001 for fear of spreading the much more contagious foot and mouth disease. The transmission pathways of BTB remain poorly understood. Current hypotheses suggest the disease is introduced into susceptible herds from a wildlife reservoir (principally the Eurasian ...

Foot and mouth disease (FMD) is a primary transboundary livestock disease of international concern. Outbreaks of the disease have recently occurred in several countries that were previously FMD-free. For countries with limited direct experience of this disease, modelling is a useful tool for the study of a potential outbreak. The objectives of this study were to determine specific FMD risk para...

Researchers from Australia, New Zealand, Canada and the United States collaborated to validate their foot and mouth disease models--AusSpread, InterSpread Plus and the North American Animal Disease Spread Model--in an effort to build confidence in their use as decision-support tools. The final stage of this project involved using the three models to simulate a number of disease outbreak scenari...

An examination of the seroprevalence of foot and mouth disease (FMD) virus was conducted in the Lao People's Democratic Republic (Lao PDR) from 1996 to 2005, using structured surveillance and abattoir-based studies. Under structured surveillance, seropositivity ranged from 65.7% (Vientiane Capital, 1996) to 3% (Houaphan, 2005) for cattle and buffalo; and from 2.8% (Vientiane Capital, 1998) to 0...

Using age-related infection rates derived from serological data in available deterministic and specially developed stochastic simulation models, it has been possible to establish that the basic reproductive rates for South African Territory (SAT) type foot and mouth disease virus in buffalo (Syncerus caffer) are high. The models predict that there is a periodicity of infection within herds and ...

In the United States, the national policy for foot and mouth disease (FMD) vaccination lacks clarity. To better understand what potential Incident Commanders see as important 'triggers' or factors to consider for implementing vaccination as a control strategy, the authors presented seven such individuals with an FMD outbreak scenario that started in north-western Illinois and spread across stat...