Probability Theory is a more of game chance. It has the condition likely and unlikely certainties. This theory plays much in human life, financial institutions, banking, education, governance, insurance, etc. Governments apply probabilistic methods environmental regulation, entitlement analysis, regulation. Weather patterns, for example, are used by meteorologists to forecast likelihood rain. e...

BACKGROUND To achieve more realistic simulations, meteorologists develop and use models with increasing spatial and temporal resolution. The analyzing, comparing, and visualizing of resulting simulations becomes more and more challenging due to the growing amounts and multifaceted character of the data. Various data sources, numerous variables and multiple simulations lead to a complex database...

In this paper we present a model based on computational intelligence and natural language generation for the automatic of textual summaries from numerical data series, aiming to provide insights which help users understand relevant information hidden in data. Our includes fuzzy temporal ontology with references addresses problem managing imprecise knowledge, is series. We fully describe real us...

Capturing the uncertainty in probabilistic wind power forecasts is challenging, especially when uncertain input variables, such as weather, play a role. Since ensemble weather predictions aim to capture system, they can be used propagate this through subsequent forecasting models. However, systems are known biased and underdispersed, meteorologists post-process ensembles. This post-processing s...

There are many definitions, descriptions, and usages of the term “mental model.” Frequently, the definition of mental model is not described, leaving what the author means as an exercise for the reader. I propose a very explicit definition for a dynamic mental model and then show how that definition can be applied in the domain of meteorological forecasting. Specifically, I suggest that a dynam...

When comparing rocketsonde and balloonsonde (radiosonde) temperature data, one notes systematic differences at levels of 25 km and above that increase with height. During the past 10 yr, systematic errors in the rocketsonde have been largely eliminated (at least for the region from 20 to 45 km), but little attention has been paid to the balloonsonde sensor. A study of temperature data for June ...

Emerging influential contributors (EICs) on social media platforms—meteorologists, news reporters, journalists, and employees of public sector agencies—play a pivotal role in disaster information warning by consistently disseminating situational public. However, the fairness Influential Contributors' (EICs') attention to different urban areas when posting has not been examined. It is unknown wh...

ABSTRACT Although both research and practice contend that message consistency is a critical component of effective risk communication, neither provide systematic evidence demonstrating if, when, where matters. For this reason, meteorologists view as relevant operational concern. To address these concerns, members the weather enterprise organized conference sessions, panels, webinars, workshops ...

Forest fires cause environmental and economic damages every year, especially in the southern part of Europe. Approaches to estimate fire risk vary from practical scientific, since different professions as firefighters, meteorologists, soldiers foresters are involved. The Internet Things enables connect sources information one place, however, understanding usage processes that caused disaster so...

Heatwaves have been the deadliest weather extreme events in Europe last decades. People living cities are especially prone to such due urban heat island (UHI) effect which increases stress surroundings during calm, steady, and radiation intensive synoptic situations. Since official measurement stations scarce, studies on spatial patterns of UHIs often rely satellite data, hobby meteorologists' ...