The risks posed by management are neither addressed by risk analysis nor included in safety cases. Yet they have been shown to be significant contributors to accidents. This paper argues for more attention to be paid to them and for the development of a risk-analysis method to address them. The paper examines the aspects of management risk that it might cover and offers a set of proposals for i...

This paper discusses some models of Imprecise Probability Theory obtained by propagating uncertainty in risk analysis when some input parameters are stochastic and perfectly observable, while others are either random or deterministic, but the information about them is partial and is represented by possibility distributions. Our knowledge about the probability of events pertaining to the output ...

At eSmart 2003, Kekicheff and Brewer [1] reported on the development of the GlobalPlatform Card Security Requirements Specification (CSRS) [2]. They pointed out not only that the CSRS presents a semi-formal security specification for the entire card platform, but also that it proposes a method for selecting the most appropriate card configuration based on risk analysis. Particular attention was...

This paper addresses the concept of model uncertainty within the context of risk analysis. Though model uncertainty is a topic widely discussed in the risk analysis literature, no consensus seems to exist on its meaning, how it should be measured, or its impact on the application of analysis results in decision processes. The purpose of this paper is to contribute to clarification. The first pa...

While security professionals have long talked about risk, moving an organization from a “security” mindset to one that thoughtfully considers information risk is a challenge. Managing information risk means building risk analysis into every business decision. In this panel, we will discuss how CISOs are working to move the conversation from security towards information risk. In particular, we w...

This paper deals with simulation modeling of the vessel traffic in Delaware River. The purpose is to study the impact of deepening on the navigational efficiency in the River. In this regard, vessel calls to terminals, lightering and barge operations, tidal and navigational rules in the River, terminal and anchorage properties as well as vessel profiles are considered in the model. The simulati...

We develop a Bayesian multivariate analysis of expert judgment elicited using an extended form of pair-wise comparisons. The method can be used to estimate the effect of multiple factors on the probability of an event and can be applied in risk analysis and other decision problems. The analysis provides variance predictions of the quantity of interest that incorporate dependencies amongst the v...

This research in progress paper introduces a research initiative focusing on bank employee risk behaviour to mitigate IT operational risks in Austrian banks. The study focuses on the role of IT risk culture and internal controls in relation to employee risk behaviour and the effectiveness of different awareness building practices in banking companies in response to international banking regulat...