In most macroeconomic models, the stability of the solution path implies that the system is covariancestationary and hence admits a Wold representation. The ability to estimate this Wold representation semi-parametrically by local projections (Jordà, 2005), even when the process for the solution path is unknown or unconventional, can be exploited to estimate the model’s parameters by minimum di...

This paper studies uncertainty using the ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters’ data. We consider both inflation and real GDP growth forecasts at the micro level and explore forecast uncertainty using two alternative measures, i.e. conventional standard deviation of individual point forecasts and the median values of individual forecasters’ uncertainty, which are based on subjective probabilit...

In this paper, we use identification-robust methods to assess the empirical adequacy of a New Keynesian Phillips Curve (NKPC) equation. We focus on the Gali and Gertler’s (1999) specification, on both U.S. and Canadian data. Two variants of the model are studied: one based on a rationalexpectations assumption, and a modification to the latter which consists in using survey data on inflation exp...

The studies on Phillips curves relating the rate of unemployment to the rate of inflation are the results of the search for a reliable tool for forecasting inflation and implementing monetary policy. The original Phillips curve has attracted considerable attention and since then, it has undergone several important changes. Although the evidence of a negative relationship between the rate of cha...

The New Keynesian Phillips Curve is at the center of two raging empirical debates. First, how can purely forward looking pricing account for the observed persistence in aggregate inflation. Second, price-setting responds to movements in marginal costs, which should therefore be the driving force to observed inflation dynamics. This is not always the case in typical estimations. In this paper, w...

Identification of New Keynesian Phillips Curves from a Global Perspective New Keynesian Phillips Curves (NKPC) have been extensively used in the analysis of monetary policy, but yet there are a number of issues of concern about how they are estimated and then related to the underlying macroeconomic theory. The first is whether such equations are identified. To check identification requires spec...

Much teaching of intermediate macroeconomics uses the IS-LM-AS or ADAS approach. This is far removed both from the practice of interest rate setting, inflation-targeting central banks and from the models that are taught in graduate courses. Modern monetary macroeconomics is based on what is increasingly known as the 3-equation New Keynesian model: IS curve, Phillips curve and interest ratebased...