A study of the underground tunnel planning reliability for megacities is proposed based on use foresight and cognitive modeling methodologies. Using methodology allows, with help expert estimation procedures, to identify critical technologies build alternatives scenarios quantitative characteristics. For justified implementation a particular scenario, used, which allows causal relationships kno...

This paper addresses the question of implementing foresight activities in the priority-setting of research councils and national research programmes. The paper is based on a study of strategy processes in national research councils and programs and the challenges their strategy activities are facing. The study analysed two cases: the strategy processes of The Danish Technical Research Council a...

Humans are able to transcend the present and mentally travel to another time, place, or perspective. Mentally projecting ourselves backwards (i.e., episodic memory) or forwards (i.e., episodic foresight) in time are crucial characteristics of the human memory system. Indeed, over the past few years, episodic memory has been argued to be involved both in our capacity to retrieve our personal pas...

The aim of this paper to present some items of emergence in the foresight that should be meant and handled scientifically. It highlights three resources of social emergence. One of them is originated from the development of shared future views at a community level from the individual future shapes. The second one is originated from the relations among the foresight and its social environment an...

This paper considers a one-sector overlapping-generations model with production. We observe that under standard assumptions on preferences and technology, the perfect-foresight equilibrium violates positivity constraints for large sets of initial conditions. The consideration of the positivity constraints of the consumer enables degenerate equilibrium, a perfect-foresight equilibrium that remai...

An essential part of the planning and control of any manufacturing system is the development of a model of the key processes. The Critical Path Method (CPM) is the most widely used modeling method in construction due to its simplicity. Discrete-event simulation is more versatile than CPM and is well suited to modeling manufacturing processes since these tend to be repetitive, but it lacks the s...

Fiscal foresight—the phenomenon that legislative and implementation lags ensure that private agents know the tax rates they face in the future—is intrinsic to the tax policy process. Although acknowledged in empirical work, theoretical analysis of its implications is scant. This paper develops an analytical framework to study the econometric implications of fiscal foresight. A simple example sh...

Monitoring one's knowledge during study is susceptible to a foresight bias (Koriat and Bjork, 2005). Judgments of learning (JOLs) are inflated whenever information that is present at study and absent, but solicited, at test, such as the targets in cue-target paired associates, highlights aspects of cues that are less apparent when those cues are presented alone. The present findings demonstrate...

With rapid changes in technology and intense competition in the business environment the importance of cultivating and sustaining foresight in multiple-product innovation firms has been propelled to unprecedented heights. Yet, research on the processes through which such firms mobilise foresight in their working environment remains scarce. This paper seeks to explore the different processes thr...