Article history: Received 28 February 2014 Received in revised form 20 December 2015 Accepted 27 December 2015 Available online 10 March 2016 Emerging uncertainties present a challenge to decision making. On the basis of a review of existing scenario methods, we examine how ontological uncertainty, that is, the situation in which we do not know what we do not know, is included in scenario proce...

In recent decades, foresight has been connected to various disciplines that engage with complex societal problems, leading specific interpretations of foresight. We offer an interdisciplinary perspective on foresight's increasing use for governance social-ecological systems (SES). seek strengthen the in this domain by bridging insights from other can help overcome its limitations. Participatory...

In the next decade a collection of technological and biological advances will enable incredible breakthroughs. These advances will also reveal perils, threats and problems that have yet to be imagined. In the legal domain strategic passivity may be the tradition, but it will only become more expensive. Disruptive global trends in innovation and technological development, increased needs for art...

Do Brokers Misallocate Customer Trades? Evidence from Futures Markets JEL Classification number: G12, G13, G18 In the context of futures markets, we study whether brokers allocate more favorable trades to their own accounts, and less favorable trades to their customers. We find that, within a thirty minute trading bracket, brokers on average buy at a lower price and sell at a higher price for t...

Background: Over 50 years after the introduction of futures studies, the number of such studies in medical education is very limited. Familiarization with futures studies can have a positive effect on the application of these studies in medical education. The study was performed to Review and synthesize the best existing evidence in the literature that addresses the question, "...

This study presents an application of stochastic model for limit order book (LOB) dynamics to Korean Stock Index Futures (KOSPI 200 Futures). Since KOSPI 200 futures market is widely known as one of the most liquid markets in the world, direct application of an existing model is hardly possible. Therefore, we modified an existing model to successfully model and predict the dynamics of extremely...

The number of meat recalls has increased markedly in recent years. This research examines the impact of beef and pork recall announcements on nearby daily live cattle and lean hog futures market prices, respectively. Results indicate medium-sized beef recalls that are of serious health concerns have a marginally negative impact on short-term live cattle futures prices. However, results are not ...

Assuming that a futures price is a function of the underlying asset and the basis, and that a Brownian bridge process drives the basis, this article provides the closed-form solution of futures with basis risk (FBR). The Brownian bridge process ensures that the basis is zero at the maturity of a futures contract. The FBR model is empirically tested with daily S&P500 futures data and is found to...

This paper studies the relationship between credit default swap spreads (CDS) for the Energy sector and oil futures dynamics. Using data on light sweet crude oil futures from 2004 to 2013, which contains a crisis period, we examine the importance of volatility and jumps extracted from the futures in explaining CDS spread changes. The analysis is performed at an index level and by rating group; ...