a r t i c l e i n f o Keywords: Sales forecasting Computer wholesaler Multivariate adaptive regression splines Artificial neural networks IT industry Artificial neural networks (ANNs) have been found to be useful for sales/demand forecasting. However, one of the main shortcomings of ANNs is their inability to identify important forecasting variables. This study uses multivariate adaptive regres...

The increased popularity of financial time series forecasting in recent times lies to its great importance in predicting the best stock market timing. In this paper, we develop the concept of a pattern modeling and recognition system for predicting future behavior of time series using local approximation. In order to improve the performance of this system, we propose a systematic and automatic ...

Purpose This study aims to apply a new forecasting approach to improve predictions in the hospitality industry. In order to do so we develop a multivariate setting that allows incorporating the cross-correlations in the evolution of tourist arrivals from visitor markets to a specific destination in Neural Network models. Design/methodology/approach This multiple-input multiple-output approach a...

Forecasting is a common data science task that helps organizations with capacity planning, goal setting, and anomaly detection. Despite its importance, there are serious challenges associated with producing reliable and high quality forecasts – especially when there are a variety of time series and analysts with expertise in time series modeling are relatively rare. To address these challenges,...

Fuzzy approach and artificial neural networks become effective tool for researchers by forecasting fuzzy time series. The relation of these has advantage to improve forecasting performance especially in handling nonlinear systems. Hence, in this study we aimed to handle a nonlinear problem to apply neural network-based fuzzy time series model. Differing from previous studies, we used various de...

* Corresponding author ([email protected]) Abstract: The performance of artificial neural networks in forecasting short range (3-6 hourly) occurrence of rainfall is presented. Feature sets extracted from both surface level weather parameters and satellite images were used in developing the networks. The study was limited to forecasting the weather over Colombo (79°52’ E, 6°54’ N), the capital...

Researchers introduce in this paper, an efficient fuzzy time series forecasting model based on fuzzy clustering to handle forecasting problems and improving forecasting accuracy. Each value (observation) is represented by a fuzzy set. The transition between consecutive values is taken into account in order to model the time series data. Proposed model employed eight main steps in time-invariant...

For the modeling of complex and nonlinear crude oil price dynamics and movement, wavelet analysis can decompose the time series and produce multiple economically meaningful decomposition structures based on different assumptions of wavelet families and decomposition scale. However, the determination of the optimal model specification will critically affect the forecasting accuracy. In this pape...

Many models have been developed to forecast wind farm power output. It is generally difficult to determine whether the performance of one model is consistently better than that of another model under all circumstances. Motivated by this finding, we aimed to integrate groups of models into an aggregated model using fuzzy theory to obtain further performance improvements. First, three groups of l...