Abstract We show that the current account balance (CA) is systematically distorted by an inflation effect, which arises because income on debt recorded as nominal interest in currency of denomination. Since includes compensations for expected inflation, increases latter must impact CA. Guided relevant international accounting rules, we impute effect 50 economies between 1991 and 2017. When adju...

In a Poisson regression model, where observations are either clustered or represented by repeated measurements of counts, the number of observed zero counts is sometimes greater than the expected frequency by the Poisson distribution and the non-zero part of count data may be overdispersed. The zero-inflated negative binomial (ZINB) mixed regression model is suggested to analyze such data. Prev...

T here is always uncertainty about the soundness of an economic model’s structure and parameters. Therefore, central banks normally face with uncertainty about the key economic explanatory relationships. So, policymaker should take into account the uncertainty in formulating monetary policies. The present study is aimed to examine robust optimal monetary policy under uncertainty, by ...

I thank Dr. Sesha Iyer and Dr. Pattnaik for the invitation to address this young audience. In monetary analysis and policy, inflation expectations play a pivotal role. Recently, in many advanced economies, central banks have substantially expanded their balance sheets, which is apparently inflationary. However, central banks in these countries allay the inflation concerns by indicating that, de...

Changes in nominal interest rates must be due to either movements in real interest rates, expected inflation, or the inflation risk premium. We develop a term structure model with regime switches, time-varying prices of risk, and inflation to identify these components of the nominal yield curve. We find that the unconditional real rate curve in the U.S. is fairly flat around 1.3%. In one real r...

Nancy Stokey's (2002) interesting and thought-provoking paper has two parts. Part I, " Ob-servability, " discusses the choice of monetary-policy instruments by relying on Atkeson and Kehoe (2001). This discussion is in terms of a tradeoff between observability and " tightness " (the correlation with the monetary-policy goal). Part II, " Robustness, " discusses the choice between discretion and ...

The bank interest rate is one of the most important macroeconomic variable in each country economic. The purpose of this paper is find the relationship between the facility interest rate and three main variable of the money market.In Iran. this issue for equations the interest rate facility, the interest rate of deposit, inflation and credit risk utilizing the model simultaneous equation system...

There exists a variety of papers dealing with the inflation generating process in Croatia. However, none of them touches upon the psychological factors driving inflation. Therefore this paper aims to fill in that niche. Applying the Carlson-Parkin method on consumer survey results, a direct measure of expected inflation is obtained. Its predictive characteristics regarding actual inflation dyna...

this paper empirically investigates the relationship between cpi inflation uncertainty, and private investment in the iranian economy from 1988 to 2010 by using quarterly data. we employ a bivariate var(5)-garch(1,1)-in-mean with diagonal bekk model to discover in a unified framework how are the interactions between the variables. in the model, conditional variance of inflation and private inve...