The aim of this paper is to analyze the monetary transmission mechanism through the influence of exchange rate variability on export volume. To date it has been very common to use “historical volatility” as an approximation for exchange rate variability in empirical studies. However, many macroeconomic time series are characterized by heteroskedasticity, i.e. their variance is not constant over...

This paper uses the data of Japan’s and Korea’s exchange rates to discuss the model construction and their associations between Japan’s and Korea’s terms exchange rate markets. The empirical results show that the mutual affects of Japan’s and Korea’s exchange rate markets may construct in bivariate IGARCH (1, 1) model with a DCC. The empirical result also shows that the terms exchange rate mark...

In the case of Indonesia and Malaysia, positive significant correlation between real effective exchange rate (REER) capital financial account explain that when inflows augment to domestic, then REER is more volatile. This result enhances IMF study (2006) show inflow on ASEAN countries dominated by short-term than long-term capital. addition, rates regime indicates becomes flexible, We can analy...

This paper takes a new empirical look at the longstanding question of the effect of exchange rate volatility on international trade flows by studying the case of Taiwan’s exports to the United States from 1989-1998. In particular, we employ sectoral level, monthly data and a multivariate GARCH-M estimator with corrections for leptokurtic errors that is consistent with the core hypothesis that t...

This paper investigates the conditional correlations and volatility spillovers between the dollar exchange rate return, gold coin return and crude oil return to stock index return. Monthly returns in the 144 observations (2005 - 2017) are analyzed by constant conditional correlation, dynamic conditional correlation, VARMA-GARCH and VARMA-AGARCH models. So this paper presents interdependences in...

We report on a novel forecasting method based on nonlinear Markov modelling and canonical variate analysis, and investigate the use of a prediction algorithm to forecast conditional volatility. In particular, we assess the dynamic behaviour of the model by forecasting exchange rate volatility. It is found that the nonlinear Markov model can forecast exchange rate volatility significantly better...

The breakdown of the Bretton Woods system and the adoption of generalized ‡oating exchange rates ushered in a new era of exchange rate volatility and uncertainty. This increased volatility lead economists to search for economic models able to describe observed exchange rate behavior. The present is a technical Appendix to Cerrato et al. (2009) and presents detailed simulations of the proposed m...

The geometric Lévy model (GLM) is a natural generalization of the geometric Brownian motion (GBM) model used in the derivation of the Black–Scholes formula. The theory of such models simplifies considerably if one takes a pricing kernel approach. In one dimension, once the underlying Lévy process has been specified, the GLM has four parameters: the initial price, the interest rate, the volatili...