The forecasts accuracy evaluation became a constant preoccupation of specialists in forecasting, because of the failure of predictions that caused the actual economic crisis. The objective of this research is to model and predict some economic variables corresponding too few macroeconomic blocks for Romanian economy. The forecast method is represented by econometric models. Moreover, the accura...

Can a policy maker lead an agent to form systematically biased economic forecasts? This possibility is ruled out by the conventional rational-expectations postulate. I revisit this question and assume that the agent misperceives causal relations among economic variables, which may lead to non-rational expectations. The agent forms forecasts of economic variables after observing the policy maker...

This study addresses the self-fulfilling prophecy effect, in the domain of economic decision-making. We present experimental data in support of the hypothesis that speculative forecasts of economic change can impact individuals' economic decision behavior, prior to any realized changes. In a within-subjects experiment, participants (N = 40) played 180 trials in a Balloon Analogue Risk Talk (BAR...

Data from weather satellites have become integral to the weather forecast process in the United States and abroad. Satellite data are used to derive improved forecasts for short-term routine weather, long-term climate change, and for predicting natural disasters. The resulting forecasts have saved lives, reduced weather-related economic losses, and improved the quality of life. Weather informat...

Weather forecasts can be evaluated in a variety of ways. Murphy (1993) defined three kinds of forecast “goodness”: consistency, quality, and value. Consistency refers to the relationship between the forecasts and the “true beliefs” of the forecaster, quality refers to the relationship between the forecasts and weather events, and value refers to the relationship between the forecasts and the be...

the quantitative relationship between higher education and economic growth in the tradition of “growth accounting equations” and also “neoclassical production function” approach have occupied a pride of place in economics of education, particularly the literature on more developed countries. however, production function type models that allow for isolating the “indirect” (external) effects of h...

a r t i c l e i n f o Central to the conduct of monetary policy are inflation forecasts. Inflation forecasts are not unique. Central banks and professional organizations generate inflation forecasts while households are surveyed about their inflation outlook. This paper estimates inflation forecast disagreement for nine economies over the 1999–2009 period, five of which target inflation. I find...