Major recent interpretations of the conjunction fallacy postulate that people assess the probability of a conjunction according to (non-normative) averaging rules as applied to the constituents' probabilities or represent the conjunction fallacy as an effect of random error in the judgment process. In the present contribution, we contrast such accounts with a different reading of the phenomenon...

The expression conditional fallacy identifies a family of arguments deemed to entail odd and false consequences for notions defined in terms of counterfactuals. The antirealist notion of truth is typically defined in terms of what a rational enquirer or a community of rational enquirers would believe if they were suitably informed. This notion is deemed to entail, via the conditional fallacy, o...

What are the historical origins of the argumentum ad consequentiam, the argument from (or literally, to) consequences, sometimes featured as an informal fallacy in logic textbooks? As shown in this paper, knowledge of the argument can be traced back to Aristotle (who did not treat it as a fallacy, but as a reasonable argument). And this type of argument shows a spotty history of recognition in ...

Abstract According to an influential physicalist view, the intuition of distinctness is a cognitive illusion in sense that it results from fallacious reasoning: we erroneously infer referents phenomenal and physical concepts are different, fact there certain difference between our uses those concepts. (Kammerer, Review Philosophy Psychology 10:649–667, 2019) has recently argued, however, psycho...

“We demand rigidly defined areas of doubt and uncertainty!” —D. Adams

794 characters): In the popular debate, poverty is often identified as the cause of child soldier recruitment. The argument suggests that economic deprivation and few viable life choices push children into recruitment for armed conflict. The poverty argument has rarely been tested systematically, and statistical results are inconclusive. Previous analyses potentially suffer from two methodologi...