Postulating two different specifications for the Canadian Phillips curve (a purely backwardlooking model, and a partly backward-, partly forward-looking model), the authors test for structural breaks in the parameters of the equation. In each case, they account for the possibilities that: (i) breaks can be discrete, or continuous, and (ii) available data samples may be too small to justify usin...

This paper describes the theoretical and empirical features of G-Cubed, a multicountry, multi-sector intertemporal general equilibrium model. G-Cubed combines the attractive features of macroeconometric models and computable general equilibrium models into a unified framework. It has been used to study a variety of topics including: greenhouse gas policy, trade liberalization, tax policy and ma...

Article history: Received 24 August 2012 Received in revised form 7 September 2013 Accepted 9 September 2013 Available online 16 September 2013 We evaluate the directional accuracy of Institute for Supply Management (ISM) indices in predicting the direction of the US economydirection; to do so, wemake use of amethod developed by Pesaran and Timmermann (2009). By illustrating an application of t...

This review article takes Peter Albin’s book Barriers and Bounds of Rationality : Essays on Economic Complexity and Dynamics in Interacti6e Systems as the starting point of a general assessment of complexity analysis from the point of view of the scope and limits of human rationality. In particular, this article examines the constraints upon human rationality. In particular, this article examin...

Block factor methods o¤er an attractive approach to forecasting with many predictors. These extract the information in these predictors into factors re‡ecting di¤erent blocks of variables (e.g. a price block, a housing block, a …nancial block, etc.). However, a forecasting model which simply includes all blocks as predictors risks being over-parameterized. Thus, it is desirable to use a methodo...

Consensus Economics forecasts for euro-area GDP growth, consumer and producer price inflation and the USD/EUR exchange rate are used by the Czech National Bank to make assumptions about future external economic developments. This paper compares the accuracy of the aforementioned Consensus forecasts to those of the European Commission, International Monetary Fund and Organization for Economic Co...

Government agencies and other national and international institutions are asked to perform forecasts over the medium term. In particular, the EU Stability and Growth Pact contains the obligation to formulate stability programmes over four years, covering a general economic outlook as well as the projected development of public fi nances. However, the current practice of performing medium-term e...

This Working Paper should not be reported as representing the views of the IMF. The views expressed in this Working Paper are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent those of the IMF or IMF policy. Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to further debate. This paper assesses the performance of three types of commodi...

Central banks and other forecasters have become increasingly interested in various aspects of density forecasts. However, recent sharp changes in macroeconomic volatility — such as the Great Moderation and the more recent sharp rise in volatility associated with greater variation in energy prices and the deep global recession — pose significant challenges to density forecasting. Accordingly, th...