Many authors have documented that it is challenging to explain exchange rate fluctuations with macroeconomic fundamentals: a random walk forecasts future exchange rates better than existing macroeconomic models. This paper applies newly developed tests for nested model that are robust to the presence of parameter instability. The empirical evidence shows that for some countries we can reject th...

this paper estimates the determinants of inflation in iran using a linear and non- linear regression model over the period 1959-2008. in the model specification, the conventional variables (liquidity, production and exchange rate) as well as positive and negative oil revenue shocks, monetary disequilibrium, and demand gap are considered. the results show that nonlinear time series regression mo...

This paper shows that in a buffer stock saving model, wealth-to-income and other interesting variables have unique stable invariant distributions. Previously this ergodic property has only been conjectured and demonstrated numerically by means of simulations. The proof proceeds by extending earlier results about the existence and uniqueness of an ergodic distribution to Markov processes on non-...

This paper presents a genetic algorithm to solve the orienteering problem, which is concerned with finding a path between a given set of control points, among which a start and an end point are specified, so as to maximize the total score collected subject to a prescribed distance constraint. Employing several sets of test problems from the literature, the performance of the genetic algorithm i...

We study a repeated game with asymmetric information about a dynamic state of nature. In the course of the game, the better informed player can communicate some or all of his information to the other. Our model covers costly and/or bounded communication. We characterize the set of equilibrium payoffs, and contrast these with the communication equilibrium payoffs, which by definition entail no c...

This paper presents a toolkit for generating optimal policy projections. It makes five contributions. First, the requires minimal set of inputs: only baseline projection target and instrument variables impulse responses those to shocks. Second, it solves projections under commitment, limited-time discretion. Third, handles multiple instruments. Fourth, constraints on instruments such as lower b...

providing of food products for increasing population, enhancing food security, increasing of production and foreign incomes are among the major program purposes of each country and monetary policies are one of the methods that immediately affected on food price and on major agriculture variables. time series analysis was used for studying the impacts of monetary policies effect on food price in...

In this paper we examine the effects of two types of “induced uncertainty”, model uncertainty due to robustness (RB) and state uncertainty due to finite information-processing capacity (called rational inattention or RI), on consumption and the current account. We show that the combination of RB and RI improves the model’s predictions for (i) the contemporaneous correlation between the current ...

within the early theories of fdi and multinational firms, fdi and foreign trade were considered to be substitutes. new international trade theories emphasize, however the complementary relationship between fdi and foreign trade.this is the result of introducing new aspects in the models like increasing returns to scale, product differentiation and technology-differences among nations.this paper...

In this paper we survey recent works on rational inattention (RI) in macroeconomics within the dynamic linear-quadratic-Gaussian (LQG) setting. We first discuss how RI affects consumption smoothness and sensitivity, precautionary savings, asset pricing, portfolio choice, and aggregate fluctuations in the univariate case. We then discuss the applications of RI to macroeconomic models of permanen...