The present study suggests a model for predicting liquidity gap, based on source and cost of funds approach concerning the daily time series data (25 March 2009 to 19 March 2018), in order to control and manage the liquidity risk. Using the family of autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity models, the behavior of bank liquidity gap is modeled and predicted. The results show that the APGAR...

Healthcare data from the Arizona Health Care Cost Containment System, Arizona’s Medicaid program provides a unique opportunity to exploit state-of-the-art data processing and analysis algorithms to mine data and provide actionable findings that can aid cost containment. Our work addresses specific challenges in this real-life healthcare application to build predictive risk models for forecastin...

This paper represents a long-standing collaboration between Robert Fildes and Brian Kingsman who sadly died before it could be completed. This paper proposes a methodology for examining the effect of demand uncertainty and forecast error on lot sizing methods, unit costs and customer service levels in MRP type manufacturing systems. A number of cost structures were considered which depend on th...

Activity based costing (ABC) has revolutionized product costing, planning, and forecasting in the last decade. It is based on a philosophy of estimation that: “it is better to be approximately right, than precisely wrong.” The philosophy of discrete-event simulation modeling follows a similar tack, where statistical inference and the stochastic nature of processes are used to replicate the beha...

Forecasting Project Progress and Early Warning of Project Overruns with Probabilistic Methods. (December 2007) Byung Cheol Kim, B.S., Seoul National University; M.S., Seoul National University Chair of Advisory Committee: Dr. Kenneth F. Reinschmidt Forecasting is a critical component of project management. Project managers must be able to make reliable predictions about the final duration and c...

Decision making on budgeting is one of the most important issues for executing managers. Budgeting is a major tool for planning and control of projects. In public and non-profit organizations and institutions, estimating the costs and revenues plays an important role in receiving credit and budgeting. In this regard, in the present paper the case of Isfahan municipality is considered. One of th...

The aim of this study is to present a new method to predict project time and cost under uncertainty. Assuming that what happens in projects implementation which is expressed in the form of Earned Value Management (EVM) indicators is primarily related to the nature of randomness or unreliability, in this study, by using Monte Carlo simulation, and assuming a specific distribution for the time an...

This paper presents the development and application of advanced neural networks to face successfully the problem of the shortterm electric load forecasting. Several approaches including Gaussian encoding backpropagation (BP), window random activation, radial basis function networks, real-time recurrent neural networks and their innovative variations are proposed, compared and discussed in this ...