[1] Observations and simulations (using the HadCM3 AOGCM) of time-dependent twentieth-century climate change indicate a linear relationship F = rDT between radiative forcing F and global mean surface air temperature change DT. The same is a good description of DT from CMIP3 AOGCMs integrated with CO2 increasing at 1% per year compounded. The constant ‘‘climate resistance’’ r is related to the t...

We develop individual-based Monte Carlo methods to explore how climate change can alter insect voltinism under varying greenhouse gas emissions scenarios by using input distributions of diapause termination or spring emergence, development rate, and diapause initiation, linked to daily temperature and photoperiod. We show concurrence of these projections with a field dataset, and then explore ...

Disturbance regimes within temperate forests can significantly impact carbon cycling. Additionally, projected climate change in combination with multiple, interacting disturbance effects may disrupt the capacity of forests to act as carbon sinks at large spatial and temporal scales. We used a spatially explicit forest succession and disturbance model, LANDIS-II, to model the effects of climate ...

The response of the equatorial Indian Ocean climate to global warming is investigated using model outputs submitted to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report. In all of the analyzed climate models, the SSTs in the western equatorial Indian Ocean warm more than the SSTs in the eastern equatorial Indian Ocean under global warming; the mean SST gradient acros...

Downscaled and hydrologically modeled projections from an ensemble of 16 Global Climate Models suggest that flooding may become more intense on the western slopes of the Sierra Nevada mountains, the primary source for California’s managed water system. By the end of the 21st century, all 16 climate projections for the high greenhouse-gas emission SRES A2 scenario yield larger floods with return...