III A missile defense system must be able to deal with an attack containing decoys in addition to warheads. If the defense system does not have enough interceptors to shoot at all the incoming objects, it must be able to discriminate between decoys and warheads. This discrimination process is not perfect and results in two types of errors: leakage (not shooting at warheads) and false alarms (sh...

The paper reviews the experience of Poland and Russia with economic reform, with occasional comparison to China’s experience. The author argues that macroeconomic chaos in Poland and Russia preceded reform and was allayed by reform; that there is no necessary tradeoff between reform and growth, and that the Polish and Russian experience shows that it is possible to create clear property rights ...

The terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001 illustrated in graphic terms the vulnerability of the United States to asymmetrical attack. The relative ease with which the nineteen Al Qaeda terrorists hijacked four airplanes and used them as deadly ballistic missiles was inconceivable to the citizens of the world’s only remaining superpower. In an instant, it became painfully clear that despite it...

The attractiveness of both ballistic missiles and weapons of mass destruction (WMD) to various actors throughout the world represents a serious threat to U.S. security. These weapons and delivery systems are popular in part because they are highly visible symbols of military prowess. As such, they provide significant influence on regional balances of power, even among friends and allies. Furthe...

The problem of tracking a tactical ballistic missile is complicated by the varying target dynamics in the boost, exo-atmospheric and endo-atmospheric phases of flight. A single Kalman filter tuned for constant velocity or constant acceleration is not based upon the correct underlying physical model of these dynamics. By including models with all of the correct dynamics, an Interacting Multiple ...