نتایج جستجو برای: arfima
تعداد نتایج: 289 فیلتر نتایج به سال:
The R/S test has been extensively used in testing the long memory of financial time series, but little attentions have been paid on its validity. The paper sets the chemical raw materials styrene price time series as an example, to test the stable of the price series. It indicates that we should give prudent explanation for the R/S test, and then establish the ARFIMA model to determine the data...
This paper presents a brief overview of some existing fractional order signal processing (FOSP) techniques where the developments in the mathematical communities are introduced; relationship between the fractional operator and long-range dependence is demonstrated, and fundamental properties of each technique and some of its applications are summarized. Specifically, we presented a tutorial on ...
A number of recent papers have suggested that the series of time intervals produced in continuation tapping may have fractal properties. This proposition, nevertheless, was only based on the visual appraisal of graphical results, and was not statistically supported. In the present study, we applied the ARMA/ARFIMA modeling procedures proposed by Wagenmakers, Farrell, and Ratcliff (2005) to test...
Nonstationary ARIMA processes and nearly nonstationary ARMA processes, such as autoregressive processes having a root of the AR polynomial close to the unit circle, have sample autocovariance and spectral properties that are, in practice, almost indistinguishable from those of a stationary longmemory process, such as a Fractionally Integrated ARMA (ARFIMA) process. Because of this, model misspe...
The maximum likelihood estimator (MLE) of the fractional difference parameter in the Gaussian ARFIMA(0, d, 0) model is well known to be asymptotically N(0, 6/π). This paper develops a second order asymptotic expansion to the distribution of this statistic. The correction term for the density is shown to be independent of d, so that the MLE is second order pivotal for d. This feature of the MLE ...
In this paper we examine the ̄nite-sample properties of the approximate maximum likelihood estimate (MLE) of the fractional di®erencing parameter d in an ARFIMA(p, d, q) model based on the wavelet coe±cients. Ignoring wavelet coe±cients of higher order of resolution, the remaining wavelet coe±cients approximate a sample of independently and identically distributed normal variates with homogeneo...
در این تحقیق به بررسی حافظه بلند بودن نرخ ارز غیررسمی ایران و تأثیر تکانه های نرخ ارز بر نااطمینانی اسمی آن پرداخته شده است؛ برای این منظور از داده های ماهیانه نرخ ارز غیررسمی طی دوره زمانی 1359- 1388 استفاده شده است. در ابتدا برای بررسی مانایی سری نرخ ارز غیررسمی سه آزمون دیکی فولر تعمیم یافته، فیلیپس پرون و kpss انجام شد و از این آزمون ها به این نتیجه رسیدیم که سری نرخ ارز غیر رسمی در ایران ...
این مقاله با هدف معرفی یک الگوی مناسب جهت پیشبینی شاخص بازدهی بورس اوراق بهادار تهران صورت پذیرفته است. دادههای مورد استفاده در این پژوهش به صورت روزانه و شامل بازهی زمانی پنجم فروردین 1388 تا سیام آبان 1390 که مشتمل بر 616 مشاهده بوده که جهت مجزا سازی پیشبینیهای داخل نمونهای و خارج از نمونهای، از تقریباً 90% از مشاهدات (556 مشاهده) جهت تخمین ضرایب مدل و از مابقی (60 مشاهده) جهت انجام پی...
The aim of this paper was to evaluate the performances of ARFIMA modelling for detecting long-range dependence and estimating fractal exponents. More specifically, our aim was to test the procedure proposed by Wagenmakers, Farrell and Ratcliff (2005), and to compare the results obtained with the Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) and the Bayes Information Criterion (BIC). The present studies sh...
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