Resumo Estimamos um VAR estrutural (SVAR) baseado em Blanchard e Perotti (2002) com dados atualizados do governo central de Gobetti Orair (2017) para estimar multiplicadores fiscais. O resultado sugere multiplicador maior na amostra completa (1997-2018) relação à pré-crise (até 2014) benefícios sociais investimentos públicos. Nosso primeiro exercício avalia a reorientação da política fiscal os ...

Structural vector autoregressive (SVAR) models are frequently applied to trace the contemporaneous linkages among (macroeconomic) variables back an interplay of orthogonal structural shocks. Under Gaussianity parameters unidentified without additional (often external and not data-based) information. In contrast, often reasonable assumption heteroskedastic and/or non-Gaussian model disturbances ...

The main substantive finding of the recent structural vector autoregression literature with a difference specification of hours (DSVAR) is that technology shocks lead to a fall in hours. Researchers have used these results to argue that standard business cycle models in which technology shocks leads to a rise in hours should be discarded. We test the DSVAR approach by asking the following: Is t...