This paper examines persistence and common persistence in US monthly zero coupon bond yields by utilising fractionally integrated GARCH and fractionally integrated stochastic volatility models. Both conventional maximum likelihood and indirect estimation procedures are considered for these models. Simulation results are then reported on the effectiveness of the alternative estimators before emp...

We examine the joint predictability of return and cash flow within a present value framework, by imposing the implications from a long-run risk model that allow for both time-varying volatility and volatility uncertainty. We provide new evidence that the expected return variation and the variance risk premium positively forecast both short-horizon returns and dividend growth rates. We also conf...

In this paper, we provide a detailed characterization of the volatility in China Treasury bond market using a sample of 5-min excess return from January, 4, 2000 to February, 28, 2002. We use two-step regression procedure and multivariate GARCH model to show that macroeconomic announcements is an important source of the volatility in China Treasury Bond market. Among the various announcements, ...

This paper deals with modeling volatility of returns of Pliva stocks on Zagreb Stock Exchange for Value at Risk forecasting. Volatility reaction and volatility persistence are measured using asymmetric GARCH process. Croatian capital market characteristic is absence of intensive reaction on "good" information. But it is confirmed that Pliva stocks volatility on Croatian capital market are under...

Several market and macro-level variables influence the evolution of equity risk in addition to the well-known volatility persistence. However, the impact of those covariates might change depending on the risk level, being different between low and high volatility states. By combining equity risk estimates, obtained from the Realized Range Volatility, corrected for microstructure noise and jumps...

Volatility permeates modern financial theories and decision making processes. As such, accurate measures and good forecasts of future volatility are critical for the implementation and evaluation of asset and derivative pricing theories as well as trading and hedging strategies. In response to this, a voluminous literature has emerged for modeling the temporal dependencies in financial market v...