In this paper, we compare the point of view of the regulator and the investors about the required solvency level of an insurance company. We assume that the required solvency level is determined using the Tail-Value at Risk and analyze the diversification benefit, both on the required capital and on the residual risk, when merging risks. To describe the dependence structure, we use a range of v...

Recognizing the drawbacks of Value-at-Risk (VaR), researchers have advocated the use of Conditional Value-at-Risk (CVaR). However, the current popularity of VaR and Stress Testing (ST) among bank regulators raises the question of whether a risk management system based on both VaR and ST constraints is an effective alternative to a system based on CVaR. We show that when the VaR and ST bounds ar...

Event risk is the risk that a portfolio’s value can be affected by large jumps in market prices. Event risk is synonymous with “fat tails” or “jump risk”. Event risk is one component of “specific risk,” defined by bank supervisors as the component of market risk not driven by market-wide shocks. Standard Value-at-Risk (VaR) models used by banks to measure market risk do not do a good job of cap...

in this paper we compared multivariate garch models toestimate value-at-risk. we used a portfolio of weekly indexesincluding tedpix, klse, xu100 during ten years. to estimatevalue-at-risk, first we estimated ccc, dcc of engle, dcc of tseand tsui, dynamic equi correlation models by oxmetrics. then,optimum lags were estimated by minimizing the information criteria.to estimate var, the models accu...

We explore generalizations of the pari-mutuel model (PMM), a formalization of an intuitive way of assessing an upper probability from a precise one. We discuss a naive extension of the PMM considered in insurance, compare the PMM with a related model, the Total Variation Model, and generalize the natural extension of the PMM introduced by P. Walley and other pertained formulae. The results are ...

this paper studies the effect of considering time varying skewness and kurtosis on the estimation of value at risk (var) for both long and short positions using the hyaparch model and daily data for tehran stock exchange price index (tepix). our results show that applying conditional distributions with time varying or constant skewness and degrees of freedom is able to capture the asymmetry app...

In the Lee-Carter framework, future survival probabilities are random variables with an intricate distribution function. In large homogeneous portfolios of life annuities, Value-at-Risk or Conditional Tail Expectation of the total yearly payout of the company are approximately equal to the corresponding quantities involving random survival probabilities. This paper aims to derive some bounds in...

Risk diversification is the basis of insurance and investment. It is thus crucial to study the effects that could limit it. One of them is the existence of systemic risk that affects all of the policies at the same time. We introduce here a probabilistic approach to examine the consequences of its presence on the risk loading of the premium of a portfolio of insurance policies. This approach co...

Value at Risk (VaR) is a popular measure for quantifying the market risk that a financial institution faces into a single number. Due to the complexity of financial markets, the risks associated with a portfolio may vary over time. For accurate VaR estimation, it is necessary to have flexible methods that adapt to the underlying data distribution. In this paper, we consider VaR estimation by us...