The cost of long-term care (LTC) is one the huge financial risks faced by elderly and also a significant challenge to social security system. This article establishes piecewise constant Markov model estimate dynamic health transition probability based on actuarial theory calculate cost, in contrast static or nontransferable state hypotheses traditional models. Using Chinese Longitudinal Healthy...

drought is one of the most important weather-induced phenomena which may have severe impacts on different areas such as agriculture, economy, energy production, and society. a number of drought indices have been introduced and used in various countries to date. in the current study, four meteorological drought indices including percent of normal precipitation index (pnpi), standard index of ann...

A wind farm is a collection of wind turbines built in an area to provide electricity. Wind power is a renewable energy resource and an alternative to non-renewable fossil fuels. In this paper impact of wind farms in power system reliability is investigate and a new procedure for reliability assessment of wind farms in HL1 level is proposed. In proposed procedure, application of Fuzzy – Markov f...

We prove weak ergodicity of the inhomogeneous Markov process generated by the generalized transition probability of Tsallis and Stariolo under power-law decay of the temperature. We thus have a mathematical foundation to conjecture convergence of simulated annealing processes with the generalized transition probability to the minimum of the cost function. An explicitly solvable example in one d...

in this paper by using the data related to the monthly precipitation of 13 stations situated in west azerbaijan province of iran in a time period of 34 years, monitoring and forecasting the probability of a drought occurrence is evaluated in next coming months. in this process, first the monthly precipitation amounts for each rainfall station are used in order to calculate the standardized prec...