The forgetting of the initial distribution for discrete Hidden Markov Models (HMM) is addressed: a new set of conditions is proposed, to establish the forgetting property of the filter, at a polynomial and geometric rate. Both a pathwise-type convergence of the total variation distance of the filter started from two different initial distributions , and a convergence in expectation are consider...

Contingent Valuation is now the most widely used method for valuing non-marketed goods in cost benefit analysis. Yet, despite the fact that many externalities manifest themselves as costs to some and benefits to others, most studies restrict willingness to pay (WTP) to being non-negative. This paper explores appropriate welfare measures for assessing losses and gains and demonstrates how these ...

We develop a Bayesian method for nonparametric model–based quantile regression. The approach involves flexible Dirichlet process mixture models for the joint distribution of the response and the covariates, with posterior inference for different quantile curves emerging from the conditional response distribution given the covariates. An extension to allow for partially observed responses leads ...

The censored regression model and the Tobit model are standard tools in econometrics. This paper provides a formal asymptotic theory for dynamic time series censored regression when lags of the dependent variable have been included among the regressors. We derive fading memory properties of the model under the assumption that the regression error is strong mixing. We show the formal asymptotic ...

In this paper we discuss the general issue of forecasting highly seasonal demand in regional airports, where peak flows approach airport capacity. For this, we propose a modeling combination, dynamic Tobit models with GARCH errors/disturbances, that is able to capture many of the shortcomings of most traditional models. Models are calibrated using monthly passenger and flight data for a 20 year...

Multivariate Tobit models estimated using German cross–sectional data are applied to test if strategic complementarities exist between expenditures in four different types of ICT–components. If two ICT–components are complements, they are correlated (provided that agents act rationally). My results are that significant correlations between all four types of ICT–expenditures indeed exist that ca...

Based onUKdata formajor retail credit cards,we build severalmodels of Loss GivenDefault based on account level data, including Tobit, a decision tree model, a Beta and fractional logit transformation. We find that Ordinary Least Squares models with macroeconomic variables perform best for forecasting Loss Given Default at the account and portfolio levels on independent hold-out data sets. The i...

Informal payments for health care are common in most former communist countries. This paper explores the demand side of these payments in Albania. Using tobit and Heckman selection models we control for individual determinants of informal payments in outpatient and inpatient health care. Propensity score matching techniques are used to investigate the changes in the characteristics of people pa...

Recently, the use of home health services by Medicare beneficiaries has been growing. From 1987 to 1992, the percentage of all enrollees receiving home health rose from 4.8 to 7.2 percent, while the average number of visits among users increased from 23 to 54. This article uses the 1992 Medicare Current Beneficiary Survey (MCBS) to profile home health users. In addition to providing descriptive...

This paper presents a new discrete/continuous choice model as a structural form to estimate a nonlinear function for the consumer valuation of radiationcontaminated milk. Unlike conventional Tobit models, some linear systematic parts of this model have structural interpretations. Using an Internet-based survey of 7,600 respondents, we found that even slightly contaminated milk was never quoted ...