The stock market has always been an attractive area for researchers since no method has been found yet to predict the stock price behavior precisely. Due to its high rate of uncertainty and volatility, it carries a higher risk than any other investment area, thus the stock price behavior is difficult to simulation. This paper presents a “data mining-based evolutionary fuzzy expert system” (DEFE...

T his study examines how oil price shocks interact with the stock market index within a nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag model in Iran. Based on quarterly data for the period from 1991 to 2017, the findings revealed statistically significant evidence of short-run and long-run asymmetric behavior of stock market index in response to the positive a...

the goal of this research is to predict total stock market index of tehran stock exchange, using the compound method of arima and neural network in order for the active participations of finance market as well as macro decision makers to be able to predict trend of the market. first, the series of price index was decomposed by wavelet transform, then the smooth's series  predicted by using...

The problem of optimal portfolio selection has attracted a great attention in the finance and optimization field. The future stock price should be predicted in an acceptable precision, and a suitable model and criterion for risk and the expected return of the stock portfolio should be proposed in order to solve the optimization problem. In this paper, two new criterions for the risk of stock pr...

This paper employs a general non-linear analysis tool to analyse the nature of time series associated with the price (returns) of a particular company in Tehran Stock Exchange. It is shown that the behavior of the process associated with the price (returns) time-series of this company is weakly chaotic, and due to the non-random behavior of the process, short term prediction of stock price is p...

The purpose of this study is to investigate and identify the periods of formation and bursting of speculative bubbles in Iran's capital market by creating a state space model and two-mode switching regime (mode 1 is bubble growth and burst stage and mode 2 is the time of bubble loss) during the period from April 2011 to March 2018. The Oxmetrics 7 software is used to investigate the existence o...

In this study, a model of Bayesian Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) from Real Business Cycles (RBC) approach with the aim of identifying the factors shaping price bubbles of Tehran Stock Exchange (TSE) was specified. The above-mentioned model was conducted in two scenarios. In the first scenario, the baseline model with sentiment shock was examined. In this model, stock price bubbl...

cycles fluctuations in housing investment and national economy, variation in consumers and producers behavior, deviation in allocation of economic resources, the aggravation of capital transfer in asset market, the variation of income distribution pattern and imbalance in resource and expenses are the consequences of fluctuations in housing prices. these consequences and its control and recogni...

S tock returns of companies listed on the stock exchange is one of the most important criteria in assessing the macroeconomic. This study investigates the effect of exchange rate Volatility on the stock exchange Returns of D8 countries. It takes monthly data during the period (2008:1-2015:6) constituting 90 observations. At first we used Panel-GARCH model to estimate Exchange Rate Vo...