The impulse and propagation mechanisms of business cycles have long been debated; however, until recently, economists were in fairly broad agreement that business fluctuations could be studied separately from the secular growth of the economy. This separation was justified because, to a first approximation, the factors underlying trend growth were assumed to be stable at business-cycle frequenc...

In this paper, we empirically investigate the relationship between oil price changes and output in a group of oil exporting countries. The dynamics of business cycles in Libya, Saudi Arabia, Nigeria, Kuwait, Venezuela and Qatar are modeled by alternative regime switching models. We show that the extension of uni-variate Markov Switching model in order to include oil revenue improves dating busi...

One of the central issues in credit risk measurement and management is modeling and predicting correlated defaults. In this paper we introduce a novel model to investigate the relationship between correlated defaults of different industrial sectors and business cycles as well as the impacts of business cycles on modeling and predicting correlated defaults using the Probabilistic Boolean Network...

In this paper I review the contribution of real business cycles models to our understanding of economic fluctuations, and discuss open issues in business cycle research. ∗I thank Martin Eichenbaum, Nir Jaimovich, Bob King, and Per Krusell for their comments, Lyndon Moore and Yuliya Meshcheryakova for research assistance, and the National Science Foundation for financial support. †Northwestern U...

implementing information technology projects requires a calculated process to prevent failure. at the same time application of information technology in organizations faces various potential risks. exploring information technology environment in organizations reveals the potential risks and provides a structure for comprehensive risk management. there are various methods available for risk mana...

in the era of globalization, particularly, since early 1990s, economies around the world have been affected considerably by co-movements in one or more countries. in the literature this phenomenon is recognized as synchronization in business cycles, while joint policies being conducted by trading partners can modify such effects properly. the objective of this paper has been to evaluate a possi...

We show that a one-sector real business cycle model with mild increasing returns-to-scale, variable capital utilization and saddle-path stability is able to produce qualitatively realistic business cycles driven solely by disturbances to government purchases. Due to an endogenous increase in labor productivity, a positive spending shock can lead to simultaneous increases in output, consumption,...