We compare forecasts of recessions using four different specifications of the probit model: a time invariant conditionally independent version; a business cycle specific conditionally independent model; a time invariant probit with autocorrelated errors; and a business cycle specific probit with autocorrelated errors. The more sophisticated versions of the model take into account some of the po...

This paper estimates whether female-headed households are poorer than their male-headed counterparts, using household data from the National Family Health Survey (NFHS) for the year 2005-06. I use poverty measures that reflect on people’s permanent income such as housing condition, wealth index and standard of living index, and argue that these measures could be more informative about the chron...

Many farms have begun operating websites in order to promote their businesses. This study used data from a survey of farms in the northeastern U.S. for the year 2004 in order to identify characteristics of farmers, farms, and farm businesses associated with website adoption. Following a technology adoption framework, a Probit model of website adoption was estimated to identify significant relat...

A probit model is used to examine the stability of the predictive content of the term structure in forecasting U.S. recessions. In particular, we compare forecasts of a recession under different assumptions regarding the presence of a structural break. We find strong evidence of the existence of a structural break in the U.S. economy, but there is considerable uncertainty about its exact locati...

The multinomial probit (MNP) model is a popular tool for analyzing choice behavior as it allows correlation between alternatives. Because current specifications employ full covariance matrix of the latent utilities alternatives, they are not scalable to large number This article proposes factor structure on matrix, which makes sets. main challenge in estimating this that parameters require iden...

This paper focuses on the role of remittances on financial expectations in Albania using longitudinal data covering the period 2002-2004. To study the dynamics of income satisfaction at the household level, we use subjective data on past, current and future financial situations and estimate random and fixed effect ordered Probit models. We find that households are more optimistic about the futu...

We examine the effect of single motherhood on children’s secondary school track choice using 12-year-old children drawn from the German Socio-Economic Panel. In line with previous studies for the U.S., the U.K. and Sweden, we find a negative correlation between single motherhood and children’s educational attainment. Looking for alternative explanations for this correlation, we use probit regre...

The Benefits of Separating Early Retirees from the Unemployed: Simulation Results for Belgian Wage Earners The pool of early retirees is characterized by a large heterogeneity along several criteria. The present paper focuses on the key distinction between those in forced early retirement and those who retire early by individual choice. We start by estimating a retirement probit model for older...

In this paper we focus on SMEs in Croatia operating in the manufacturing and services sectors and seek to compare them in terms of their involvement in innovation activities, the factors that determine their decision to innovate in general and in four types of innovations in particular: product/service, process, organisational and marketing innovations. The analysis relies on the Croatian Commu...