We develop a version of the fundamental theorem of asset pricing for discrete-time markets with proportional transaction costs and model uncertainty. A robust notion of no-arbitrage of the second kind is defined and shown to be equivalent to the existence of a collection of strictly consistent price systems.

This paper presents a dynamic portfolio choice model to analyze the liquidity premium necessary to compensate an investor for the adverse price impact of trading. By calibrating the model to empirically reasonable parameter values, we generate a plausible liquidity premium. Specifically, the premium is an increasing, concave function of price impact. It increases with the investor’s initial wea...

Relying on a present value model with time-varying expected returns, and incorporating a quite general class of processes to model bubble-like stock price deviations from the long-run equilibrium, we provide empirical evidence on the U.S. log dividend–price ratio over the 1871:1–2001:9 period, as well as for several sub-periods. The application of a momentum threshold autoregressive technique d...

This paper presents a forecasting approach, in which stock price direction in the next day can be predicted based on nonlinear probability models and technical indicators. The proposed method incorporates various indicators into Logit, Probit, and Extreme Value models permitting a decision maker to forecast the direction of stock movements more efficiently. The utilized indicators include Movin...

This study gives an inside view of the application of ARIMA time series model to forecast the future Gold price in Indian browser based on past data from November 2003 to January 2014 to mitigate the risk in purchases of gold. Hence, to give guideline for the investor when to buy or sell the yellow metal. This financial instrument has gained a lot of momentum in recent past as Indian economy is...

We propose a model in which investors cannot costlessly process information from asset prices. At the trading stage, investors are boundedly rational and their interpretation of prices injects noise into the price system, which serves as a source of endogenous noise trading. Compared to the standard rational expectations equilibrium, our setup features price momentum and yields higher return vo...

An application of rigorous statistical analysis in aiding investment decision making gains momentum in the United States of America as well as the United Kingdom. Nonetheless in Malaysia the responses from the local academician are rather slow and the rate is even slower as far as the practitioners are concern. This paper illustrates how Multiple Regression Analysis (MRA) and its extension, Hed...

Stocks with better past returns crash more than other stocks on May 6, 2010. I find evidence that this is related to such stocks being unattractive to contrarian buyers. This suggests the importance of contrarian investors in stabilizing price fluctuations. However, the glass is half full---that the contrarian investors shun certain types of stocks limits the extent of price stability that reli...

This paper presents a novel adaptive algorithm using mean reversion strategy without transaction cost. The antiocr algorithm only exploits the property of “reversal to the mean” and its performance not only significantly depends on the size of window but also fluctuates wildly according to the different size of window. To overcome these limitations, this proposed algorithm is designed to deal w...