The consumer response to changing gasoline prices has long interested economists and policymakers, for it has important implications for the effects of gasoline taxation and vehicle energy efficiency policies. This study examines both the elasticity of driving with respect to changing gasoline prices and heterogeneity in this elasticity by geography, the fuel economy of the vehicle, and the age...

This paper proposes a novel approach to measure and analyze the effect of temperature on electricity demand. This temperature effect is specified as a function of the density of temperatures observed at a high frequency with a functional coefficient, which we call the temperature response function. This approach contrasts with the usual approach to model the temperature effect as a function of ...

Prediction markets serve as popular devices to aggregate beliefs and to assess market estimated probabilities. By looking at the interaction between realand play-money prediction markets, this paper shows that traded volume has a significant positive effect on the probability of realand play-money market cointegration. This indicates that the information aggregation process, eliminating individ...

The paper examines the time-series evidence relating to participation rates in further education in England and Wales, and uses cointegration analysis to identify a long-run statistical relationship in the data consistent with an augmented human-capital model. The recent rapid growth of participation is attributable largely to the improvements in GCSE attainment of the last decade, coupled with...

The real exchange rate real interest rate (RERI) relationship is central to most open economy macroeconomic models. However, empirical support for the relationship, especially when cointegrationbased methods are used, is rather weak. In this paper we reinvestigate the RERI relationship using bilateral real exchange rate data spanning the period 1978 to 1997. We first clarify the logic of applyi...

We show how temporal aggregation affects the size and power of the DOLS residualbased KPSS test of the null of cointegration. Size is effectively controlled by setting the minimum number of leads equal to one – as opposed to zero – when selecting the lag/lead order of the DOLS regression, but at a cost to power in finite samples. If highfrequency data for one or more series are available, we sh...

Cointegration analysis has led to equilibrium-correction econometric systems being ubiquitous. But in a non-stationary world subject to structural breaks, where model and mechanism differ, equilibrium-correction models are a risky device from which to forecast. Equilibrium shifts entail systematic forecast failure, as forecasts will tend to move in the opposite direction to data. We explain the...

This review paper provides an overview of the application of behavioral public economics to energy efficiency. I document policymakers’ arguments for “paternalistic” energy efficiency policies, formalize with a simple model of misoptimizing consumers, review and critique empirical evidence, and suggest future research directions. While empirical results suggest that policies to address imperfec...

I show that provision of electricity meters leads to a large reduction in electricity consumption over the first four months following meter installation. This is consistent with previous overconsumption by unmetered users facing a zero marginal price. However, it also reflects underconsumption by metered customers paying a marginal price exceeding marginal cost. I quantify these welfare effect...

In this paper we describe a method for testing the null of no cointegration in dynamic panels with multiple regressors and compute approximate critical values for these tests. Methods for non-stationary panels, including panel unit root and panel cointegration tests, have been gaining increased acceptance in recent empirical research. To date, however, tests for the null of no cointegration in ...