plentifulness of oil resources on the one hand, and serious economic challenges in the course of development of the country, on the other hand, makes the optimum use of these resources a considerable issue in achieving the goals of sustainable development. iran’s experience in establishing exchange reserve account (era) during 2000-2005 indicates that its main function is saving the surplus rev...

Background Infants with family history of atopy are considered at high risk for developing allergic disease. Environmental exposures are modifiable risk factors with a potential for intervention to prevent allergy. Children who develop house dust mite (HDM) sensitisation by pre-school age are at higher risk of developing asthma. Prevention of HDM sensitisation in early childhood by immune modul...

In this article, we forecast crude oil and natural gas spot prices at a daily frequency based on two classification techniques: artificial neural networks (ANN) and support vector machines (SVM). As a benchmark, we utilize an autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) specification. We evaluate outof-sample forecast based on encompassing tests and mean-squared prediction error (MSPE). We ...

Commodity derivatives are becoming an increasingly important part of the global derivatives market. Here we develop a tractable stochastic volatility model for pricing commodity derivatives. The model features unspanned stochastic volatility, quasi-analytical prices of options on futures contracts, and dynamics of the futures curve in terms of a low-dimensional affine state vector. We estimate ...

This paper considers the relationship between the extraction rates and remaining reserves of a nonrenewable resource. Under general conditions the derived extraction rule is firstly linear, and secondly exhibits a slope term common to all extractors regardless of pricing behaviour and costs whilst differences are captured by the intercept. Data from the world oil industry supports the hypothesi...

JEL classification: E32 C32 How similar is the price behavior of oil, natural gas, and coal? Are there any interactions among these three fuel prices and their volatilities? Using the Yatchew and Dimitropoulos (2016) annual data for the United States, over the period from 1870 to 2014, and state-of-the-art econometric methodology, we explore for spillovers and interactions among the three energ...

This article studies U.S. monthly inflation, inflation growth, and price level dynamics from January 1967 to September 2005. Two rolling samples are constructed to recover evidence about instability in inflation, inflation growth, and price level persistence and volatility. Evidence is presented that changes in inflation, inflation growth, and price level persistence and volatility coincide wit...

We present a simple model of petroleum exploration and development that can be applied to study the performance of alternative tax systems and identify potential distortions. Although the model is a highly simplified, it incorporates many factors and some of the key tradeoffs that would influence an investor’s investment behavior. The model recognizes the role of enhanced oil recovery and treat...

Between January 2017 and March 2020 a coalition of oil producers led by OPEC Russia (known as OPEC+) cut production in an attempt to raise the price crude oil. In corona virus shock collapse this coalition, members did not agree on keeping market tight face large negative demand shock. Yet, was OPEC+ actually effective sustaining oil? early when strategy place, inventories fell substantially re...

This paper compares technologies across space and time on the basis of factual and counterfactual substitution elasticities and argues that differences in estimated substitution elasticities should be decomposed into two counterfactual components. While the first component is designed to indicate how the ease of substitution is altered by varied economic circumstances, the second addresses the ...