The paper investigates the impact of EMU on foreign direct investment flows. Using the option value approach to investment decisions, it is possible to show how exchange rate uncertainty hinders cross-border investment flows. By permanently fixing bilateral exchange rates, a currency union can then be expected to spur international investment. Results from a gravity model on a sample of OECD co...

This paper is concerned with the ability of speculation to generate a currency crisis. We consider a game-theoretic setting between a unit mass of speculators and a government that holds foreign currency reserves. We analyze conditions under which the speculators may be able to force the government to devaluate the currency. Among these conditions, we analyze the role of heterogeneous beliefs, ...

This paper investigates currency and financial crises in an optimizing general equilibrium model. It is shown that a rise in current and expected future budget deficits generates a real exchange rate appreciation and a decumulation of external assets, leading up to a currency crisis when foreign reserves approximate a critical level. Strong empirical support for our model is obtained by a probi...

Once China has been accepted into the World Trade Organization, all the business and geographical limitations that previously restricted the activities of foreign banks in China will be removed gradually. China is expected to allow foreign banks to conduct foreign currency business for all foreign customers immediately, to allow them to conduct foreign currency business involving Chinese client...

This paper analyses optimal monetary policy in a small open economy allowing for financial dollarization (FD). More importantly, we endogenise FD, making it dependent on the expected monetary policy. Contrary to the standard small open economy model, where central banks should control domestic (producer) prices and adopt a pure floating exchange rate regime, we find that some exchange rate cont...

For centuries the nations and principalities of the world have engaged in trading schemes to boost exports. Conquest, protection of domestic supply through tariffs and eroding domestic currency are all part of the historic policy harem. The United States has a foreign trade zone program. Who knew? FTZs evoke images of women locked inside a dark sweatshop in a jungle making hoodies for football ...

This paper not only determines why individual firms use foreign currency derivative but investigates also what effects this derivatives usage has on the foreign exchange risk exposure of 471 European nonfinancial firms. We find strong evidence in favor of the existence of economies of scale in hedging and show that European firms engage in hedging programs in response to tax convexity. Results ...

This paper presents results from an in-depth analysis of the foreign exchange rate exposure of a large nonfinancial firm based on proprietary internal data including cash flows, derivatives and foreign currency debt, as well as external capital market data. While the operations of the multinational firm have significant exposure to foreign exchange rate risk due to foreign currency-based activi...

This paper develops and tests a model of unobservable risk premia in the foreign exchange market. Risk premia in our model are driven by non-marketable income shocks which risk averse agents attempt to hedge by trading foreign currency. We test our model using data on hedging demand in currency futures and find that our proxy for risk premia explains approximately 45 percent of the variation in...