We evaluate the economic usefulness of oil price forecasts by means conditional forecasting five US macroeconomic indicators. First, we forecast prices using a mixed sampling frequency framework, where are driven information available at high-frequency; and subsequently proceed with our forecasts. Overall, there is diminishing importance for inflation projections, whereas reverse holds true exp...

We study the joint dynamics of bond yields and macroeconomic variables in a New-Keynesian small open economy model complemented with a no-arbitrage term structure model. With Canadian data, we are able to study the impact of domestic and foreign (US) shocks on the yield curve. The unconditional variance decomposition of the yield level show that the movement of expected short rates is mainly dr...

The formation of macroeconomic policy is conceptualized as on-going process of interaction between private individuals and a centralized policymaker. This interaction is inherently strategic in nature and lends itself to a gametheoretical treatment. Starting from the basic principle of rational expectations, the analysis advances a theoretical perspective on the related concepts of macroeconomi...

The paper considers the macroeconomic impact of shocks to agricultural output and of negative and positive price shocks. It is shown that negative price shocks have particularly large externalities: it is estimated that the overall impact of these negative shocks on GDP may well be double their direct impact. In terms of policy, the presence of externalities justifies subsidising the provision ...

Although the IS/LM-AS/AD model is still the central tool of macroeconomic teaching in most macroeconomic textbooks, it has been criticized by several economists. Colander (1995) demonstrated that the framework is logically inconsistent, Romer (2000) showed that it is unable to deal with a monetary policy that uses the interest rate as its operating target, and Walsh criticized that it is not we...

During the 2000s, however, housing put itself on the agenda. Increased interest in housing was reflected in academic literature, in media commentary and in government and industry concerns. At the macroeconomic level, the start of the decade brought the chicken and egg problem of rising house prices and increasing housing debt. This raised concerns about the impact of increasing housing debt on...