[1] Representation of model input uncertainty is critical in ensemble‐based data assimilation. Monte Carlo sampling of model inputs produces uncertainty in the hydrologic state through the model dynamics. Small Monte Carlo ensemble sizes are desirable because of model complexity and dimensionality but potentially lead to sampling errors and correspondingly poor representation of probabilistic s...

Several methods for reducing the variance in the context of Monte Carlo simulation are based on correlation induction. This includes antithetic variates, Latin hypercube sampling, and randomized version of quasi-Monte Carlo methods such as lattice rules and digital nets, where the resulting estimators are usually weighted averages of several dependent random variables that can be seen as functi...

1. Abstract The growing power of computers enabled techniques coined for design and analysis of simulations to be applied to a large spectrum of problems and to reach high level of acceptance among practitioners. Generally, when simulations are time consuming, a surrogate model replaces the computer code in further studies. The very first step for successful surrogate modeling and statistical a...

We propose a discrete model to investigate the role of contact tracing program reducing the newcases and prevalence of tuberculosis. We observe that the tuberculosis contact tracing program has no effect on the basic reproduction number R0 but the size of social cluster has. On the other hand a contact tracing program can speed up the process of TB elimination. We compute the partial rank corre...

Milling models provide tools for estimating stability and surface location error. Existing models are deterministic, though inherent variations in the model inputs propagate to uncertainty in the model outputs. In this paper the experimental procedures used to estimate the model parameters are presented. The effect of correlation between parameters is addressed. The variability of the stability...

This study examines the parameters crucial to cost-effectiveness of universal hepatitis B immunization in India. An incremental cost-effectiveness analysis was done using a decision tree (Markov model) to follow up a hypothetical cohort of 100,000 newborns for the effects of hepatitis B acquired vertically at birth. The measure of effectiveness was disability-adjusted life-years gained. Uncerta...