Previous models of rules versus discretion are extended to include uncertainty about the policymaker’s ‘type’. When people observe low inflation, they raise the possibility that the policymaker is committed to low inflation (type 1). This enhancement of reputation gives the uncommitted policymaker (type 2) an incentive to masquerade as the committed type. In the equilibrium the policymaker of t...

One of the stylized facts of Canadian labour markets in the 1990s and into the new millennium is a lengthening in labour contract duration. Various authors have analyzed the underlying factors influencing the duration of labour contracts in Canada, but they have typically covered only periods up to the late 1980s or early 1990s. A particular area of interest to the Bank of Canada is the role pl...

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This paper considers a plethora of time-series measures of uncertainty for inflation and real output growth, which are widely used in empirical studies. Their relative performances are compared to a benchmark measure using the uncertainty measure reported by individual forecasters in the Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF) for the period 1982-2008. The results show that the use of real-tim...

Abstract. Motivated by the concept of “location uncertainty”, initially introduced in Mémin (2014), a scheme is sought to perturb “location” state variable at every forecast time step. Further considering Brenier's theorem (Brenier, 1991), asserting that difference two positive density fields on same domain can be represented transportation map, we demonstrate perturbations consistently define ...

Ekonomide enflasyon yüksekliği kadar belirsizliği de diğer bütün sektörlerde olduğu gibi bankacılık sektörünü olumsuz etkilemektedir. Enflasyon belirsizliğinin kredi piyasasında risk oluşturmakta ve piyasa aksaklığı yaratarak hacmini düşürmektedir. Çalışmada Türkiye ekonomisinde banka hacmi üzerindeki olası etkisini araştırılmıştır. Bu amaçla ARDL yöntemine dayalı sınır testi kullanılarak ile a...