The financial crisis has fueled interest in alternatives to traditional asset classes that might be less affected by large market gyrations and, thus, provide for a less volatile development of a portfolio. One attempt at selecting stocks that are less prone to extreme risks, is obeyance of Islamic Sharia rules. In this light, we investigate the statistical properties of the Dow Jones Islamic S...

We analyse the impact of news on five financial markets in the Czech Republic, Hungary and Poland using a newly constructed data set in a GARCH framework. Macroeconomic shocks (on GDP, inflation rate, current account and trade balance) are constructed as deviations from expected values. EMU-related political and fiscal news is captured as news dummies. Macroeconomic shocks significantly affect ...

It is well-established that the …nancial time series display some stylized fatcs such as volatility clustering, high kurtosis, low starting and slow-decaying autocorrelation function and the Talyor e¤ect as well. In order to evaluate volatility models’capacity in capturing such facts, we apply both standard and robust measures of kurtosis and autocorrelation of squares to GARCH, EGARCH and ARSV...

This paper proposes a semiparametric approach by introducing a smooth scale function into the standard GARCH model so that conditional heteroskedasticity and scale change in a nancial time series can be modelled simultaneously. An estimation procedure combining kernel estimation of the scale function and maximum likelihood estimation of the GARCH parameters is proposed. Asymptotic properties of...

This paper demonstrates that the use of GARCH-type models for the calculation of minimum capital risk requirements (MCRRs) may lead to the production of inaccurate and therefore inecient capital requirements. We show that this inaccuracy stems from the fact that GARCH models typically overstate the degree of persistence in return volatility. A simple modi®cation to the model is found to improv...

This paper explores whether speculative activity can, in practice, generate the ARCHtype behavior found in financial time series. Specifically, G7 equity market indices are examined for evidence of a dynamic whereby speculative interest is self-sustaining – that is, markets can become “hot”. A straightforward model, taken from Faruqee and Redding [9], generates some testable implications of the...

Detecting and modelling structural changes in GARCH processes have attracted a great amount of attention in time series econometrics over the past few years. In this paper, we …rst generalize Dahlhaus and Subba Rao (2006 2008)’s time-varying ARCH processes to time-varying GARCH processes and derive the consistency and asymptotic normality of the weighted quasi maximum likelihood estimator of th...

4 GARCH Models 7 4.1 Basic GARCH Specifications . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8 4.2 Diagnostic Checking . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11 4.3 Regressors in the Variance Equation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12 4.4 The GARCH–M Model . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12 4.5 The Threshold GARCH (TARCH) Model . . . . . . . . . . . . 12 4.6 The Exponential GARCH (EG...

To capture the missed information in the standardized errors by parametric multivariate generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (MV-GARCH) model, we propose a new semiparametric MV-GARCH (SM-GARCH) model. This SM-GARCH model is a twostep model: firstly estimating parametric MV-GARCH model, then using nonparametric skills to model the conditional covariance matrix of the standa...