There it no general consensus on how bett to attack evidential-reasoning (ER) problems, particularly in expert-system applications. Several approaches have evolved, but they have their roots in diverse fields, such as statistics and philosophy, and have neither a common terminology nor a common set of assumptions. The research reported here provides two useful results. First, it structures the ...

In this paper, normal cloud model and evidential reasoning (E-R) approach is used in multiple attribute decision analysis (MADA) problems. Different attributes Belief function are represented by cloud model interval. Using cloud model generating algorithm, belief degree interval is obtained without numerical computation. In addition, it is reasonable and it accords with human’s mind. Evidential...

Standard equilibrium concepts in game theory find it diffi cult to explain the empirical evidence from a large number of static games including the prisoners’dilemma game, the hawk-dove game, voting games, public goods games and oligopoly games. Under uncertainty about what others will do in one-shot games, evidence suggests that people often use evidential reasoning (ER), i.e., they assign dia...

Civil engineering protection works mitigate natural risks in mountains, such as torrents. Analysing their effectiveness at several scales is an essential issue in the risk management. Based on expert knowledge, used methods have been developed under risky environment. However, decision is made under uncertainty because of 1) the lack of information and knowledge on natural phenomena and 2) the ...

This study develops an alternative methodology for the risk analysis of information systems security (ISS). an evidential reasoning approach under the Dempster-Shafer theory of belief functions. The approach has the following important dimensions. First, the evidential reasoning approach provides a rigorous, structured manner to incorporate relevant ISS risk factors, related countermeasures, an...

A new evidential reasoning based approach is proposed that may be used to deal with uncertain decision knowledge in multiple-attribute decision making (MADM) problems with both quantitative and qualitative attributes. This approach is based on an evaluation analysis model and the evidence combination rule of the Dempster-Shafer theory. It is akin to a preference modeling approach, comprising an...

This paper reports the application of an evidential reasoning approach to design selection of retro-fit options for complex engineering products. The particular selection problem investigated in this paper is initially modelled by means of techno-economic analysis and may be viewed as a multiple attribute decision making (MADM) problem with a hierarchical structure of attributes which may be me...