Unpredictability has two main sources: epistemic uncertainty and ontological unpredictability. When disruptive and downstream innovation become frequent, ontological unpredictability becomes increasingly important for innovation policy and strategy. The analysis of the nature of ontological unpredictability explains why future-oriented technology analysis and foresight frequently fails to grasp...

EXTENDED ABSTRACT As any mature industry the forest industries have gone through many transformations and structural changes. Historically, forest industries in the Northern hemisphere (North America and Northern European countries) have been rather successful by moving forward in the value chain in order to avoid market decline or raw material shortage (Hylander 2009). From timber exports and ...

This paper analyzes the case of the Internet Routing in Space (IRIS) Joint Capability Technology Demonstration (JCTD) as a potential model for disruptive innovation in the government space sector. It finds that technologies like IRIS – characterized by a promising yet unproven relatively mature concept, which faces substantial barriers to implementation, but which could benefit from the stabili...

The proposed research analyzes industry evolution with disruptive innovations, in which conventional technologies are replaced by new (but initially inferior) technologies. The goal is to understand the relationship between competition and innovation, for the purpose of designing pro-innovation competition policies. I develop a dynamic industry equilibrium model in which rms can invest in the q...

Building on prior suggestions concerning corporate resources as causes of disruptive innovation for increasing competitive advantage in developed economies, this research empirically re-investigated such assumptions emerging markets. Through the theoretical lens resource-based perspective, current examined perceived impacts four different (Financial, Human, Organizational, and Technological cap...

This paper looks at several “disruptive” technologies. It traces the path they have taken from the early innovation phase to full implementation. The technologies discussed include refrigeration; the automobile and highway system; incandescent lighting; the television and the personal computer. The paper first traces each technology through several steps leading from the early innovation to wid...

ICT innovations are considered to be of central importance to social and economic developments. Various innovation theories offer classifications to predict and assess their impact. This paper reviews the usefulness of selected approaches and their application in the convergent communications sector. It focuses on the notion of disruption, the comparatively new distinction in disruptive and sus...

Standards impact interoperability, portability, and security of products or services. Standards contribute to open and flexible systems that, in turn, are a catalyst for the uptake of new technologies. The assessment of standards in disruptive innovation is, however, challenged by uncertainty over markets, technology evolution, and organizational change. The dynamics of technology progression, ...

Achievement and sustenance of growth are essential themes in organizational literature. In our paper, we develop models using systems thinking approach to understand how firms achieve and sustain growth in a technology-intensive product domain. We augment these to explain the possible impact of disruptive technological innovation. We use enterprise software industry as the context where SAP has...