The ModelMap package (Freeman, 2009) for R (R Development Core Team, 2008) has added two additional variants of random forests: quantile regression forests and conditional inference forests. The quantregForest package (Meinshausen and Schiesser, 2015) is used for quantile regression forest (QRF) models. QRF models provide the ability to map the predicted median and individual quantiles. This ma...

We report three experiments corroborating a prediction of the theory of mental models about reasoning. In realistic problems deriving from those used in the Graduate Record Examination (GRE), logically untrained individuals are able to cope better with conditional assertions, which have only a single explicit mental model, than with disjunctive assertions, which have multiple explicit mental mo...

the research problem investigated in this paper is modeling volatility and analyzing risk and return’s relationship in tehran stock exchange using garch-family models including garch(1,1), garch(2,2), egarch(1,1), pgarch(1,1), tgarch(1,1), garch(1,1)-m and cgarch(1,1). using the daily returns of tehran stock exchange companies, we focused on two portfolios of all the companies during a 10-year-...

because of its extensive applications in financial analysis, stock market volatility modeling is a significantly important issue for stock market practitioners and academicians. using garch models to formulate the conditional variance heteroskedasticity and the taking advantages of panel data technique such as higher degrees of freedom, more flexibility in the control of the omitted or unobserv...

My 1997 JHR paper neither endorsed nor condemned the use of instrumental variables (IV) to estimate the parameters of economic models. Its main goal was to remind readers of some basic points developed in a series of papers with Richard Robb (1985, 1986), We establish that when responses to "treatment" or a policy intervention vary across persons even after conditioning on observable variables ...

H igh price volatility and the risk are the main features of commodity markets. One way to reduce this risk is to apply the hedging policy by future contracts. In this regard, in this paper, we will calculate the optimal hedging ratios for OPEC oil. In this study, besides the multivariate GARCH models, for the first time we use conditional copula models for modelling dependence struc...

Beyond relative survival, which indicates the likelihood that patients will not die from causes associated with their cancer, conditional relative survival probabilities provide further useful prognostic information to cancer patients, tailored to the time already survived from diagnosis. This study presents conditional relative survival for melanoma patients in the United States, diagnosed dur...