I find that a 1% increase in aggregate bank credit growth implies that the excess returns of bank stocks over the next one year are lower by nearly 3%. Unlike most other forecasting relationships, credit growth tracks bank stock returns over the business cycle and explains nearly 14% of the variation in bank stock returns over a 1-year horizon. This effect is robust to the exclusion of data fro...

Using a novel dataset that allows us to trace the primary bank relationships of a sample of mostly unlisted firms, we explore to what extent foreign banks can improve the allocation of credit in emerging markets. Our results suggest that the limits of financial integration are less tight than what the previous literature based on a static picture of bank loan portfolios suggested. Foreign banks...

Using a novel dataset that allows us to trace the primary bank relationships of a sample of mostly unlisted firms in Eastern Europe, we explore to what extent foreign banks can improve the allocation of credit. Our results suggest that the limits of financial integration are less tight than what previous literature based on a static picture of bank loan portfolios suggested. Foreign banks appea...

the aim of this study was to investigate the factors affecting timely repayment of agricultural loans in fars province. the necessary data was obtained from agricultural bank as well as through 163 questionnaires, filled out in fars-province. the farmers were divided in to timely repayment and defaulter groups while standard tobit model being used for the study. the dependent variable in this m...

How do the smallest firms in Mexico finance their operations? We examine this question using data from surveys of microenterprises undertaken in 1994 and 1998. The survey identifies sources of startup capital, and also provides information on current bank loans and access to trade credit from suppliers. There is evidence that the credit crunch experienced by Mexico in the second half of the 199...

Investigators exammning problems with credit availability during the most recent recession have been unable to provide definitive evidence that the decline in bank loans was, at least in part, a supply phenomenon. Furthermore, they have not focused on the subset of loans made to borrowers most likely to be dependent on bank financing. This study overcomes these flaws. By examining formal regula...

This paper examines the recent period of relatively low credit spreads in Japan, with particular emphasis on the market’s assessments of the credit risks of large Japanese banks implicit in the prices of credit derivatives. We extract the market-price implied likelihood of a credit event in the future, and explore the nature of the default risk premiums underlying recent changes in bank bond an...

I analyze banks’ incentives to acquire expertise in judging the credit-worthiness of borrowers in an industry with uncertain business conditions. The optimal industrial organization of bank lending features several banks with industry expertise, as well as a competitive fringe of banks without such expertise. The analysis provides a foundation for analyzing the relative merits of focus vs. dive...

Efficient credit portfolio management is a key success factor of bank management. Discussions of the new capital adequacy proposals by the Basle Committee on Banking Supervision enlighten the necessity to consider the credit risk management both from the internal and the regulatory point of view. We introduce an optimization approach for the credit portfolio that maximizes expected returns subj...

In this paper we present a brief overview of Bank Information System (BIS) market situation in Ukraine. An architectural approach for BIS is proposed. The approach demonstrates how to build the BIS application for credit department of a bank. The paper presents a first step of such system implementation, namely: subsystem for overdraft agreement processing. The subsystem uses XML to describe ag...