Long memory analysis is one of the most active areas in econometrics and time series where various methods have been introduced to identify estimate long parameter partially integrated series. One common models used represent that a ARFIMA (Auto Regressive Fractional Integration Moving Average Model) which diffs are fractional number called parameter. To analyze determine model, fractal must be...

This paper extends the results of Byers, Davidson and Peel (1997) on long memory in support for the Conservative and Labour Parties in the UK using longer samples and additional poll series. It finds continuing support for the ARFIMA(0,d,0) model though with somewhat smaller values of the long memory parameter. We find that the move to telephone polling in the mid-1990s has no apparent effect o...

Our goal in this work is to construct empirical confidence intervals for the fractional parameter d in ARFIMA(0, d, 0) processes. Through these confidence intervals one can compare several estimators for d to decide which one is the best estimation method related to long memory time series. We use a fortran routine that simulates random time series to latter perform an analysis for detecting lo...

Many geophysical quantities, such as atmospheric temperature, water levels in rivers, and wind speeds, have shown evidence of long memory (LM). LM implies that these quantities experience non-trivial temporal memory, which potentially not only enhances their predictability, but also hampers the detection of externally forced trends. Thus, it is important to reliably identify whether or not a sy...

In this paper, we discuss two distinct multivariate time series models that extend the univariate ARFIMA model. We describe algorithms for computing the covariances of each model, for computing the quadratic form and approximating the determinant for maximum likelihood estimation, and for simulating from each model. We compare the speed and accuracy of each algorithm to existing methods and mea...

In this paper, we have examined 4 models for Great Salt Lake level forecasting: ARMA (Auto-Regression and Moving Average), ARFIMA (Auto-Regressive Fractional Integral and Moving Average), GARCH (Generalized Auto-Regressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity) and FIGARCH (Fractional Integral Generalized Auto-Regressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity). Through our empirical data analysis where we div...

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