This paper is a study of continuously resettled contingent claims prices in a stochastic economy. As special cases, the relationship between futures and forward prices is analyzed, and a preference-free expression is derived for these prices, as well as the price of a continuously resettled futures option, whose formula differs from Black’s futures option pricing formula due to the effects of m...

We prove that for a large class of widely used term structure models there is a simple theoretical upper bound for value of LIBOR futures prices. When this bound is compared to observed futures prices, one nevertheless finds that the theoretical bound is sometimes violated by market prices. The main consequence of this observation is that virtually all of the important fixed income models have ...

This paper develops a dynamic, equilibrium model of a futures market to study optimal hedging and the term structure of open interest and futures prices. Investors continuously face spot price risk over time and attempt to hedge this risk using futures. Convenience yield shocks generate basis risk to rolling over near-to-maturity futures. Hence, investors need to simultaneously trade far-from-m...

We theoretically study how commodity financialization affects trading behavior, prices and welfare through affecting risk sharing and price discovery in futures markets. In our model, the general equilibrium feature makes financial traders either provide or demand liquidity in the futures market, depending on the information environment. Consistent with recent evidence, commodity financializati...

Co-integration analysis is applied to historical data (1760±1864) from the worldÕs ®rst well-established futures market, in rice at Dojima (in Osaka, Japan). The market shows a strong seasonal character. The summer market was strongly characterized by producersÕ hedging behavior, and may be called a ``commodity-oriented futures market''. On the other hand, the spring and autumn markets in the m...

The demand for hedging against price uncertainty in the presence of crop yield and revenue insurance contracts is examined for French wheat farms. The rationale for the use of options in addition to futures is first highlighted through the characterization of the first-best hedging strategy in the expected utility framework. It is then illustrated using numerical simulations. The presence of op...

The reorganization of the electricity industry in Spain completed a new step with the start-up of the Derivatives Market. One main characteristic of MIBEL’s Derivatives Market is the existence of physical futures contracts; they imply the obligation to settle physically the energy. The market regulation establishes the mechanism for including those physical futures in the day-ahead bidding of t...

This paper describes a set of experiments performed with an artiicial futures market simulation. The non-rational market participants, which evolve simple strategies using genetic algorithms, compete against each other to make proots by buying and selling futures contracts. The dynamic and equilibrium behavior of the participants is studied under a variety of conditions. The results suggest tha...

This paper studies the market phenomenon of non-convergence between futures and spot prices in the grains market. We postulate that the positive basis observed at maturity stems from the futures holder’s timing options to exercise the shipping certificate delivery item and subsequently liquidate the physical grain. In our proposed approach, we incorporate stochastic spot price and storage cost,...